29 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

Toronto FC vs New York City FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

BMO Field, Toronto
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Toronto FC 1-1 New York City FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Toronto FC, 26% draw, 33% New York City FC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Toronto FC at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Toronto FC4%Draw92%New York City FC4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Benjamin Kuscevic
18'
29'
⚽N. Mercauassist: A. Ojeda
40'
Nicolás Fernández
54'
Andrés Perea
🔁K. Franklinout: Matheus Pereira
55'
🔁D. Etienneout: D. Salloi
55'
Đorđe Mihailović
59'
62'
🔁N. Cavalloout: K. O'Toole
63'
🔁B. Traoreout: Raul Gustavo
Matheus Pereira
64'
⚽D. Salloiassist: T. Corbeanu
70'
75'
🔁Thiago Martinsout: M. Jones
77'
🔁K. Parksout: J. Shore
90+1'
Jonathan Shore

Match stats — Toronto FC vs New York City FC

41%Possession59%
14Shots6
6On target2
7Corners2
0.76xG0.39

Goals against chances

Toronto FC1 from 0.76 xGabout what the chances were worth
New York City FC1 from 0.39 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. GavranG
  • 19K. FranklinD
  • 25W. ZimmermanD
  • 13B. KuscevicD
  • 22R. LaryeaD
  • 71M. CimermancicM
  • 14A. CoelloM
  • 7T. CorbeanuM
  • 10D. MihailovicM
  • 11D. EtienneM
  • 9J. SargentF
Substitutes
  • 23W. YarbroughG
  • 44R. EdwardsD
  • 15N. GomisD
  • 3Matheus PereiraD
  • 12Z. MonlouisD
  • 38J. GilmanD
  • 99J. VilsaintF
  • 20D. SalloiF
  • 17E. AristizabalF
Coach: Robin Fraser
New York City FC 4-3-3
  • 49M. FreeseG
  • 35M. IlenicD
  • 13Thiago MartinsD
  • 6J. SandsD
  • 2N. CavalloD
  • 7N. MercauM
  • 55K. ParksM
  • 8A. PereaM
  • 26A. OjedaF
  • 20LuighiF
  • 9B. TraoreF
Substitutes
  • 18G. RanjitsinghG
  • 30T. RomeroG
  • 22K. O'TooleD
  • 34Raul GustavoD
  • 23M. MurrayD
  • 24T. GrayD
  • 27C. FlaxM
  • 32J. ShoreM
  • 88M. JonesF
Coach: Pascal Jansen

Form going into Toronto FC vs New York City FC

Toronto FC

  • W2-1away to Inter Miami22 August 2026
  • D3-3Charlotte19 August 2026
  • W2-1New England Revolution15 August 2026
  • D1-1away to New York City FC31 July 2026
  • L1-2away to DC United25 July 2026

New York City FC

  • D1-1away to New England Revolution23 August 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Cincinnati19 August 2026
  • L2-3Philadelphia Union16 August 2026
  • D1-1Toronto FC31 July 2026
  • W3-1Chicago Fire25 July 2026

What these results say

  • Toronto FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Toronto FC.
  • New York City FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • New York City FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for New York City FC.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Toronto FC27611103951-1229
9New York City FC2789104136+533

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Toronto FC vs New York City FC

  • 31 July 2026New York City FC 1–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 3 July 2025New York City FC 3–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 26 April 2025Toronto FC 0–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 11 May 2024Toronto FC 2–3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
  • 16 March 2024New York City FC 2–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 24 September 2023New York City FC 3–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Toronto FC and New York City FC

Toronto FC

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.

New York City FC

  • N. Fernández Mercau15 goals4 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.