Atlanta United FC
vs
Charlotte
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 45% Atlanta United FC, 25% draw, 30% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Atlanta United FC 1.70, Charlotte 1.36.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atlanta United FC carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.52 for Charlotte. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Atlanta United FC L-L-D-L-L; Charlotte W-W-D-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Atlanta United FC and 1.36 for Charlotte. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlanta United FC rate 0.73 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Charlotte rate 0.62 and 1.23.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlanta United FC the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.7 expected goals for Atlanta United FC against 1.36 for Charlotte. Atlanta United FC's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.23 for Charlotte.