Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Atlanta United FC 0-2 Charlotte.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Atlanta United FC, 25% draw, 28% Charlotte — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlanta United FC at 47% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. HoyosG
- 55T. JacobD
- 27P. DiazD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 47M. EdwardsD
- 48C. SanchezM
- 28W. ReillyM
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 59A. MiranchukF
- 22F. PicaultF
- 10M. AlmironF
- 42J. HibbertG
- 2R. HernandezD
- 4E. MihajD
- 16A. GillM
- 7S. AlzateM
- 67E. DovloF
- 30C. TogashiF
- 19Sergio SantosF
- 78A. JardinesM
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 35W. ClearyD
- 22H. KesslerD
- 3T. ReamD
- 23D. SchneggD
- 16P. BielM
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 28D. DianiM
- 11L. AbadaF
- 9I. ToklomatiF
- 10A. Saint-MaximinF
- 21T. MillerG
- 14N. ByrneD
- 4A. PrivettD
- 44M. AgyemangD
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 13B. BronicoM
- 37R. AlokoF
- 7A. GoodwinF
- 25T. SmallsF
Form going into Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte
Atlanta United FC
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Minnesota United FC20 August 2026
- W2-1New York Red Bulls15 August 2026
- L2-3away to Philadelphia Union1 August 2026
- L1-4away to New England Revolution25 July 2026
Charlotte
- W3-1DC United22 August 2026
- D3-3away to Toronto FC19 August 2026
- W3-1Columbus Crew15 August 2026
- L1-2away to Chicago Fire2 August 2026
- W2-0away to New York Red Bulls25 July 2026
What these results say
- Atlanta United FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlanta United FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Atlanta United FC had three goals or more.
- Charlotte scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charlotte conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Charlotte had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 27 |
| 4 | Charlotte | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 38 | +9 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte
- 23 July 2026Charlotte 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 28 April 2026Charlotte 0–2 Atlanta United FCUS Open Cup
- 19 July 2025Atlanta United FC 2–3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 1 March 2025Charlotte 2–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 31 August 2024Charlotte 0–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 2 June 2024Atlanta United FC 2–3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer