Inter Miami
vs
CF Montreal
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 84% Inter Miami, 9% draw, 7% CF Montreal — fair odds of 1.19, 11.11 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Inter Miami 3.98, CF Montreal 1.24.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 89%, under 2.5: 11%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Leading scorers
Inter Miami
- L. Messi13 goals7 assists
CF Montreal
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Inter Miami carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.33 for CF Montreal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Inter Miami W-W-W-W-D; CF Montreal D-D-L-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.98 goals for Inter Miami and 1.24 for CF Montreal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter Miami rate 1.23 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CF Montreal rate 0.61 and 1.71.
That points to 89% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (7%), 4-1 (7%), 3-0 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 84%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.98 expected goals for Inter Miami against 1.24 for CF Montreal. Inter Miami's attack/defence rating is 1.23/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.71 for CF Montreal.