Inter Miami vs CF Montreal Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Inter Miami 7-1 CF Montreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Inter Miami, 21% draw, 20% CF Montreal — fair odds of 1.69, 4.76 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Miami at 59% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter Miami vs CF Montreal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 97D. St.ClairG
- 17I. FrayD
- 37M. FalconD
- 5CasemiroD
- 32N. AllenD
- 7R. de PaulM
- 42Y. BrightM
- 8T. SegoviaM
- 10L. MessiF
- 19G. BerterameF
- 9L. SuarezF
- 34R. RiosG
- 4F. MuraD
- 76C. Abadia-RedaD
- 22D. AyalaM
- 15F. CaicedoD
- 59P. PlambeckM
- 88A. ShawM
- 56D. PinterF
- 54L. DelinoisF
- 31T. GillierG
- 27D. BugajD
- 2J. NealD
- 4B. VeraD
- 13L. PetrassoD
- 8M. LongstaffM
- 6S. PietteM
- 21F. HerbersM
- 18G. SynchukF
- 9P. OwusuF
- 23N. StreitF
- 1S. BrezaG
- 5B. CraigD
- 22V. LoturiM
- 16W. CarmonaM
- 29O. EscobarF
- 7D. PereiraM
- 10A. SanchezF
- 14D. RiosF
- 17D. SealyM
Form going into Inter Miami vs CF Montreal
Inter Miami
- L1-2Toronto FC22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Philadelphia Union19 August 2026
- L1-4away to Nashville SC16 August 2026
- D2-2Columbus Crew1 August 2026
- W1-0away to CF Montreal25 July 2026
CF Montreal
- D2-2Los Angeles Galaxy22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Columbus Crew19 August 2026
- D1-1DC United15 August 2026
- D2-2New England Revolution1 August 2026
- L0-1Inter Miami25 July 2026
What these results say
- Inter Miami scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inter Miami conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- CF Montreal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Inter Miami | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 64 | 50 | +14 | 46 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs CF Montreal
- 25 July 2026CF Montreal 0–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 5 July 2025CF Montreal 1–4 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 28 May 2025Inter Miami 4–2 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 11 May 2024CF Montreal 2–3 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 10 March 2024Inter Miami 2–3 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- 27 May 2023CF Montreal 1–0 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Inter Miami and CF Montreal
Inter Miami
- L. Messi21 goals11 assists
- L. Suárez12 goals2 assists
CF Montreal
- P. Owusu15 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.