New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia Union.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% New York Red Bulls, 25% draw, 33% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New York Red Bulls at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34E. HorvathG
- 12D. NealisD
- 2J. CheD
- 14J. BazanD
- 56M. Dos SantosD
- 48R. DonkorM
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 7C. CowellM
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 11J. RuvalcabaM
- 16J. HallF
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 5O. ValenciaD
- 26T. ParkerD
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 13E. M. Choupo-MotingF
- 17C. HarperF
- 37M. SofoF
- 91M. JimenezF
- 92D. NelichF
- 18A. BlakeG
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44N. PierreD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 6C. SullivanM
- 21D. Jean JacquesM
- 4J. LukicM
- 19I. VassilevM
- 10M. IloskiF
- 9B. DamianiF
- 76A. RickG
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 2G. MartinezD
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 16B. BenderM
- 28A. AnelloF
- 23E. AlladohF
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
- D1-1Chicago Fire22 August 2026
- L0-1Nashville SC19 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC15 August 2026
- W3-2Orlando City SC1 August 2026
- L0-2Charlotte25 July 2026
Philadelphia Union
- D1-1away to Austin23 August 2026
- D2-2Inter Miami19 August 2026
- W3-2away to New York City FC16 August 2026
- W3-2Atlanta United FC1 August 2026
- W1-0Seattle Sounders25 July 2026
What these results say
- New York Red Bulls conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 34 | 51 | -17 | 33 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union
- 22 July 2026Philadelphia Union 3–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 16 August 2025New York Red Bulls 1–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 13 August 2025Philadelphia Union 3–2 New York Red BullsUS Open Cup
- 12 July 2025Philadelphia Union 2–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 31 August 2024New York Red Bulls 0–2 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 6 July 2024Philadelphia Union 0–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Philadelphia Union
- M. Iloski16 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.