New York Red Bulls
vs
Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 44% New York Red Bulls, 21% draw, 35% Philadelphia Union — fair odds of 2.27, 4.76 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: New York Red Bulls 2.14, Philadelphia Union 1.89.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
New York Red Bulls carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.73 for Philadelphia Union. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): New York Red Bulls D-W-L-L-W; Philadelphia Union D-L-W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.89 for Philadelphia Union. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
New York Red Bulls rate 1.02 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Philadelphia Union rate 0.87 and 1.11.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives New York Red Bulls the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for New York Red Bulls against 1.89 for Philadelphia Union. New York Red Bulls's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.11 for Philadelphia Union.