DC United
vs
Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer prediction
The model makes it 46% DC United, 22% draw, 32% Los Angeles FC — fair odds of 2.17, 4.55 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: DC United 2.04, Los Angeles FC 1.70.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
DC United
No earlier matches on record this season.
Los Angeles FC
- D1-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps1 August 2026
- W4-0Sporting Kansas City26 July 2026
- W3-1Real Salt Lake23 July 2026
- W3-0away to Los Angeles Galaxy18 July 2026
- W1-0Seattle Sounders25 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers
DC United
- T. Baribo11 goals
Los Angeles FC
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
DC United carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.45 for Los Angeles FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): DC United D-D-D-W-D; Los Angeles FC W-W-W-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for DC United and 1.70 for Los Angeles FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
DC United rate 0.75 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Los Angeles FC rate 0.65 and 1.44.
That points to 72% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives DC United the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for DC United against 1.7 for Los Angeles FC. DC United's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.44 for Los Angeles FC.