Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Vitoria.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Atletico Mineiro, 25% draw, 22% Vitoria — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Mineiro at 53% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 23A. PreciadoD
- 2NatanaelD
- 40VitaoD
- 36K. PasciniD
- 25T. PerezM
- 5AlexsanderM
- 39M. CisseM
- 19ReinierM
- 27A. MindaM
- 18T. BorbasF
- 31RobertG
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 6R. LodiD
- 53Pedro LemosD
- 21A. FrancoM
- 10Gustavo ScarpaM
- 15K. CastanoM
- 48GutteM
- 9M. CassierraF
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 2E. BritezD
- 25CacaD
- 36Luan CandidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 6Emmanuel MartinezM
- 7MarinhoM
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 95Caique GoncalvesM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 71YuriG
- 98MatheusinhoD
- 13RamonD
- 15WalaceD
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 88Ze VitorM
- 26EdenilsonM
- 11OsvaldoF
- 33ErickF
Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria
Atletico Mineiro
- D0-0away to Internacional22 August 2026
Vitoria
- L0-2Bahia23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Atletico Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 40 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Vitoria
- 14 March 2026Vitoria 2–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 31 August 2025Vitoria 1–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 13 April 2025Atletico Mineiro 2–2 VitoriaSerie A
- 5 October 2024Atletico Mineiro 2–2 VitoriaSerie A
- 20 June 2024Vitoria 4–2 Atletico MineiroSerie A
- 26 August 2018Vitoria 1–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Mineiro and Vitoria
Atletico Mineiro
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Vitoria
- Rene9 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.