Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Sao Paulo 2-1 RB Bragantino.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Sao Paulo, 28% draw, 34% RB Bragantino — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sao Paulo at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23RafaelG
- 22D. DuarteD
- 5Robert ArboledaD
- 35SabinoD
- 20ButaM
- 94DanielzinhoM
- 8Marcos AntonioM
- 12Iago BorduchiM
- 37ArturF
- 43G. SantanaF
- 10LucianoF
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 2R. ToloiD
- 19Lucas RamonD
- 54Luis OsorioD
- 18WendellD
- 80CaulyM
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 48DjhordneyM
- 11FerreiraF
- 18Tiago VolpiG
- 23A. Sant'AnnaD
- 14Pedro HenriqueD
- 16Gustavo MarquesD
- 29Juninho CapixabaD
- 7Eric RamiresM
- 20RodriguinhoM
- 32J. HerreraM
- 21Lucas BarbosaM
- 17VinicinhoM
- 9I. PittaF
- 1CleitonG
- 51Caue NascimentoD
- 2G. RodriguezD
- 34A. HurtadoD
- 4Alix ViniciusD
- 5FabinhoM
- 22Gustavo NevesM
- 6GabrielM
- 35Matheus FernandesM
Form going into Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino
Sao Paulo
- L0-1away to Chapecoense23 August 2026
- D1-1Coritiba16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Gremio8 August 2026
- D1-1away to Flamengo26 July 2026
- L1-2Atletico Paranaense23 July 2026
RB Bragantino
- W1-0Gremio23 August 2026
What these results say
- Sao Paulo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sao Paulo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sao Paulo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 36 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino
- 15 March 2026RB Bragantino 1–2 Sao PauloSerie A
- 21 February 2026RB Bragantino 1–2 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
- 9 November 2025Sao Paulo 0–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 17 July 2025RB Bragantino 2–2 Sao PauloSerie A
- 8 February 2025RB Bragantino 1–0 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
- 20 November 2024RB Bragantino 1–1 Sao PauloSerie A
Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and RB Bragantino
Sao Paulo
- Luciano8 goals2 assists
- J. Calleri8 goals1 assist
RB Bragantino
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.