14 September 2026, 23:00 UTC

Bahia vs Remo Serie A prediction & result

Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Bahia 2-1 Remo.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Bahia, 28% draw, 25% Remo — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bahia at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bahia97%Draw3%Remo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Nicolas Acevedo
8'
⚽Jean Lucasassist: Cristian Olivera
20'
45'
🔁Ze Ricardoout: Vitor Bueno
45'
🔁Duplexe Tchamba Bangouout: Gabriel Taliari
45'
🔁Leonel Piccoout: José Welison
50'
🔁Jandir Breno Souza Silvaout: Alef·Manga
70'
Matheus Felipe
🔁Marcos Victorout: Román Gómez
72'
🔁erick pulgaout: Ademir
79'
🔁Jean Lucasout: Éverton Ribeiro
79'
🔁Nicolas Acevedoout: Caio Alexandre
79'
84'
🔁Antonio Galeanoout: Gabriel Poveda
⚽Luciano (pen)
90+1'
90+6'
⚽Vitor Bueno (pen)
🔁Alejo Velizout: Everaldo Stum
90+7'
Cristian Olivera
90+7'

Match stats — Bahia vs Remo

63%Possession37%
17Shots14
9On target3
7Corners6

Line-ups

Bahia 4-3-3
  • 1RonaldoG
  • 44Marcos VictorD
  • 33David DuarteD
  • 4KanuD
  • 46Luciano JubaD
  • 6Jean LucasM
  • 5N. AcevedoM
  • 11Rodrigo NestorM
  • 99C. OliveraF
  • 9A. VélizF
  • 16Erick PulgaF
Substitutes
  • 8Caio AlexandreM
  • 77Ruan PabloF
  • 12Willian JoséF
  • 66Zé GuilhermeD
  • 7AdemirF
  • 63David MartinsM
  • 27EveraldoF
  • 10Éverton RibeiroM
  • 31Roman GomezD
Coach: Rogério Ceni
Remo 3-4-3
  • 88Marcelo RangelG
  • 27Zé IvaldoD
  • 4Matheus FelipeD
  • 18D. TchambaD
  • 22Yago PikachuM
  • 14L. PiccoM
  • 8PatrickM
  • 6MarlonM
  • 21A. GaleanoF
  • 55Zé RicardoF
  • 7Jája SilvaF
Substitutes
  • 9Gabriel PovedaF
  • 19Gabriel TaliariF
  • 97IvanG
  • 10JádersonF
  • 5Leo AndradeD
  • 13MarllonD
  • 2Matheus AlexandreD
  • 15Vitor BuenoF
  • 94Ygor VinhasG
Coach: Leonardo Condé

Form going into Bahia vs Remo

Bahia

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to RB Bragantino5 September 2026
  • W3-2Internacional30 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Vitoria23 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Chapecoense16 August 2026
  • D0-0Vasco da Gama9 August 2026

Remo

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Flamengo6 September 2026
  • L2-3Coritiba31 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Fluminense22 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Internacional17 August 2026
  • D2-2Atletico Mineiro8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Bahia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Bahia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Remo did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Remo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Remo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Bahia33141184842+653
19Remo33611163651-1529

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bahia vs Remo

  • 14 May 2026Remo 2–1 BahiaCopa Do Brasil
  • 22 April 2026Bahia 1–3 RemoCopa Do Brasil
  • 22 March 2026Remo 4–1 BahiaSerie A

Leading scorers: Bahia and Remo

Bahia

GoalsAssists

  • Luciano Juba111

Remo

GoalsAssists

  • Jája Silva91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bahia beat Remo 2–1. The model had made a win for Bahia its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jean Lucas 20' for Bahia, Luciano (penalty) 90+1' for Bahia, Vitor Bueno (penalty) 90+6' for Remo.

How the call on Bahia v Remo has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 47% / 28% / 25%: the biggest move is Bahia's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Bahia win47%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Remo win25%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.