Bahia
vs
Remo
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Bahia 2-1 Remo.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Bahia, 27% draw, 24% Remo — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bahia 1.90, Remo 0.98.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Bahia vs Remo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bahia at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bahia vs Remo
Bahia
- W3-2away to RB Bragantino5 September 2026
- W3-2Internacional30 August 2026
- W2-0away to Vitoria23 August 2026
- D3-3away to Chapecoense16 August 2026
Remo
- L0-1Flamengo6 September 2026
- L2-3Coritiba31 August 2026
- L1-2away to Fluminense22 August 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 46 |
| 19 | Remo | 27 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bahia vs Remo
- 14 May 2026Remo 2–1 BahiaCopa Do Brasil
- 22 April 2026Bahia 1–3 RemoCopa Do Brasil
- 22 March 2026Remo 4–1 BahiaSerie A
Leading scorers: Bahia and Remo
Bahia
- Luciano Juba8 goals1 assists
Remo
- Jája Silva7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Bahia carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.67 for Remo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for Bahia and 0.98 for Remo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bahia rate 1.08 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Remo rate 0.75 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bahia a 0.2% chance of the title and Remo 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bahia the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.9 expected goals for Bahia against 0.98 for Remo. Bahia's attack/defence rating is 1.08/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.08 for Remo.