Liga MX · Apertura - 3 · 3 August 2026, 01:05 UTC

Toluca vs Necaxa

Toluca

The model makes it 35% Toluca, 27% draw, 38% Necaxa — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Toluca 1.31, Necaxa 1.36.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Low.

Model insights

55%
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%0-1 9%1-0 8%

Head-to-head: Toluca vs Necaxa

  • 22 February 2026Necaxa 0–3 TolucaLiga MX
  • 13 July 2025Toluca 3–1 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 8 March 2025Toluca 5–2 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 28 October 2024Necaxa 1–3 TolucaLiga MX
  • 10 February 2024Necaxa 3–3 TolucaLiga MX
  • 2 July 2023Toluca 0–0 NecaxaLiga MX
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Necaxa the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Toluca against 1.36 for Necaxa. Toluca's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.07 for Necaxa.