3 August 2026, 01:05 UTC

Toluca vs Necaxa Liga MX prediction & result

Toluca
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Toluca 3-1 Necaxa.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Toluca, 27% draw, 38% Necaxa — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Necaxa at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽I. Lopezassist: J. Gallardo
29'
42'
⚽J. Carranzaassist: A. Pena
44'
•Julián Carranza
45+7'
Agustín Oliveros
45+4'
Raúl Martínez
45+6'
Julián Carranza
⚽E. del Villarassist: I. Lopez
45'
46'
🔁J. P. Torres Patinoout: P. Pedraza
46'
🔁C. Vargasout: M. Zaleta
46'
🔁J. Ruizout: J. Valencia
⚽L. Jimenez (OG)
57'
🔁I. Lopezout: F. Vinas
59'
🔁J. Diaz Priceout: V. Guzman
59'
🔁E. Gutierrezout: Helinho
65'
🔁J. Anguloout: P. Perez
65'
67'
🔁L. Faravelliout: M. Espindola
80'
Agustín Oliveros
80'
Agustín Oliveros
85'
🔁D. Leyvaout: F. Mendez
Franco Romero
90+7'
90+7'
Juan Valencia
🔁A. Vegaout: A. Briseno
90'

Match stats — Toluca vs Necaxa

75%Possession25%
25Shots9
7On target3
6Corners2
1.51xG1.32

Goals against chances

Toluca3 from 1.51 xGmore than the chances were worth
Necaxa1 from 1.32 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Toluca 4-2-3-1
  • 22L. GarciaG
  • 19S. SimonD
  • 6F. PereiraD
  • 25E. del VillarD
  • 20J. GallardoD
  • 29J. Diaz PriceM
  • 5F. RomeroM
  • 10J. AnguloM
  • 35E. GutierrezM
  • 9A. VegaM
  • 21I. LopezF
Substitutes
  • 1H. GonzalezG
  • 13LuanD
  • 24F. ArceM
  • 11HelinhoF
  • 16F. VinasF
  • 15P. PerezM
  • 3A. BrisenoD
  • 7V. GuzmanM
  • 4Bruno MendezD
Coach: Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich Antonio
Necaxa 5-3-2
  • 12L. JimenezG
  • 99E. RodriguezD
  • 33R. MartinezD
  • 4A. PenaD
  • 3A. OliverosD
  • 88C. VargasD
  • 8L. FaravelliM
  • 6D. LeyvaM
  • 10J. RuizM
  • 11J. P. Torres PatinoF
  • 9J. CarranzaF
Substitutes
  • 1C. AndradeG
  • 5NavesD
  • 17R. CortezM
  • 30R. MonrealF
  • 16P. PedrazaM
  • 27M. PedrozaF
  • 14M. ZaletaM
  • 21M. EspindolaM
  • 90J. ValenciaF
Coach: Martin Varini

Form going into Toluca vs Necaxa

Toluca

  • L1-2Pumas UNAM22 July 2026
  • W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas19 July 2026

Necaxa

  • W2-1Monterrey26 July 2026
  • W2-1Atlante FC17 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Toluca7511176+1116
13Necaxa8224913-48

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Toluca vs Necaxa

  • 3 August 2026Toluca 3–1 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 22 February 2026Necaxa 0–3 TolucaLiga MX
  • 13 July 2025Toluca 3–1 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 8 March 2025Toluca 5–2 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 28 October 2024Necaxa 1–3 TolucaLiga MX
  • 10 February 2024Necaxa 3–3 TolucaLiga MX

Leading scorers: Toluca and Necaxa

Toluca

  • F. Viñas3 goals

Necaxa

  • J. Carranza4 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.