Leon vs CF Pachuca Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Leon 1-0 CF Pachuca.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Leon, 26% draw, 35% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leon at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leon vs CF Pachuca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Oscar GarcíaG
- 7Iván MorenoD
- 14Jhohan RomañaD
- 3Juan GuevaraD
- 5Sebastián VegasD
- 29José RodríguezM
- 16Jordi CortizoM
- 20Rodrigo EcheverríaM
- 6Fernando BeltránM
- 18Edgar GuerraM
- 13Daniel ArcilaF
- 27Diber CambindoF
- 35Luis ValadezM
- 203Jesús LaraD
- 4Bryan ColulaD
- 25Paul BellónD
- 185Christopher MoraD
- 22Sebastián SantosM
- 247Isaac EspinosaM
- 181Irving MartinezG
- 25Carlos MorenoG
- 22Alan MozoD
- 4Eduardo BauermannD
- 2Sergio BarretoD
- 15Francisco VenegasD
- 16Christian RiveraM
- 10Elías MontielM
- 21Nicolás VallejoM
- 7Rodolfo PizarroM
- 11Oussama IdrissiM
- 23Salomón RondónF
- 6Mauricio IsaisD
- 187Gael ÁlvarezF
- 26Alan BautistaM
- 8Alexei DomínguezF
- 9Adrián AlcarazM
- 31Jose EulogioG
- 13Jorge BerlangaD
- 14Carlos SánchezD
- 19Illian HernandezF
Form going into Leon vs CF Pachuca
Leon
- L0-1away to Club Tijuana25 July 2026
- L2-3Atlas18 July 2026
CF Pachuca
- L1-2Club Queretaro27 July 2026
- W3-0away to Pumas UNAM18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Leon | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 10 | CF Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leon vs CF Pachuca
- 2 August 2026Leon 1–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 14 January 2026CF Pachuca 2–1 LeonLiga MX
- 23 August 2025Leon 1–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 6 February 2025CF Pachuca 1–2 LeonLiga MX
- 13 July 2024Leon 0–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 8 February 2024CF Pachuca 3–2 LeonLiga MX
Leading scorers: Leon and CF Pachuca
Leon
- D. Arcila3 goals
CF Pachuca
- S. Rondón8 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.