Liga MX · Apertura - 3 · 2 August 2026, 01:00 UTC

Leon vs CF Pachuca

The model makes it 39% Leon, 26% draw, 35% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Leon 1.53, CF Pachuca 1.44.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Low.

Model insights

60%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%2-1 9%1-2 8%

Head-to-head: Leon vs CF Pachuca

  • 14 January 2026CF Pachuca 2–1 LeonLiga MX
  • 23 August 2025Leon 1–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 6 February 2025CF Pachuca 1–2 LeonLiga MX
  • 13 July 2024Leon 0–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 8 February 2024CF Pachuca 3–2 LeonLiga MX
  • 11 July 2023Leon 4–0 CF PachucaLiga MX
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Leon the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Leon against 1.44 for CF Pachuca. Leon's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.16 for CF Pachuca.