Zalaegerszegi TE vs Paks NB I prediction & result
Final score: Zalaegerszegi TE 5-2 Paks.
Before kick-off the model made it 11% Zalaegerszegi TE, 18% draw, 71% Paks — fair odds of 9.09, 5.56 and 1.41. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paks at 71% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zalaegerszegi TE vs Paks
Line-ups
- 1Bence Gundel-TakácsG
- 8András CsonkaD
- 4Joseth PerazaD
- 33Diogo SilvaD
- 99Zétény GaraiD
- 10Bence KissM
- 30Fabricio AmatoM
- 11Norbert SzendreiM
- 18José CalderónM
- 23Maxsuell AlegriaF
- 7Alen SkribekF
- 32Lucas AlfonsoF
- 77Arthur Henrique MarquesF
- 17Guilherme Luiz TeixeiraF
- 80Marlon SantosF
- 74Bence BabosF
- 31Žan MauricioG
- 12David LópezD
- 66Máté RózsaM
- 3Fernando VeraD
- 1Ádám KovácsikG
- 11Hunor KuzmaD
- 26Milán SzekszárdiD
- 5Bálint VécseiD
- 9János HahnM
- 17Milán PetőM
- 8Balázs BaloghM
- 21Kristóf PappM
- 4Andor LapuM
- 10Zsolt HarasztiF
- 7József SzalaiF
- 20Márió ZekeD
- 24Bence LenzsérD
- 19Kevin HorváthM
- 13Dániel BödeF
- 16Balázs WiesnerF
- 28Márk GyetvánG
- 14Erik SilyeD
- 12Gabor VasD
- 30János SzabóD
Form going into Zalaegerszegi TE vs Paks
Zalaegerszegi TE
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to MTK Budapest27 July 2026
Paks
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Panathinaikos30 July 2026
- W4-2Ferencvarosi TC26 July 2026
- L1-2Panathinaikos23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 10 |
| 4 | Paks | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zalaegerszegi TE vs Paks
- 14 March 2026Paks 1–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 29 November 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–0 PaksNB I
- 17 August 2025Paks 2–2 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 22 April 2025Paks 2–1 Zalaegerszegi TEMagyar Kupa
- 29 March 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–1 PaksNB I
Leading scorers: Zalaegerszegi TE and Paks
Zalaegerszegi TE
GoalsAssists
- Arthur Henrique30
Paks
GoalsAssists
- J. Szalai61
- M. Pető41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Zalaegerszegi TE beat Paks 5–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Paks at 71% and given a win for Zalaegerszegi TE 11%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 9 matches like this one. The goals: José Calderón 2' for Zalaegerszegi TE, József Szalai (penalty) 11' for Paks, José Calderón 21' for Zalaegerszegi TE, Andor Lapu 40' for Paks, Zétény Garai 45+1' for Zalaegerszegi TE, Arthur Henrique Marques 73' for Zalaegerszegi TE, Bence Babos 90+9' for Zalaegerszegi TE.