Zalaegerszegi TE vs Paks NB I prediction & result
Final score: Zalaegerszegi TE 5-2 Paks.
Before kick-off the model made it 11% Zalaegerszegi TE, 18% draw, 71% Paks — fair odds of 9.09, 5.56 and 1.41. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Paks at 71% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Zalaegerszegi TE vs Paks
Line-ups
- 1Bence Gundel-TakácsG
- 8András CsonkaD
- 4Joseth PerazaD
- 33Diogo SilvaD
- 99Zétény GaraiD
- 10Bence KissM
- 30Fabricio AmatoM
- 11Norbert SzendreiM
- 18José CalderónM
- 23Maxsuell AlegriaF
- 7Alen SkribekF
- 32Lucas AlfonsoF
- 77Arthur Henrique MarquesF
- 17Guilherme Luiz TeixeiraF
- 80Marlon SantosF
- 74Bence BabosF
- 31Žan MauricioG
- 12David LópezD
- 66Máté RózsaM
- 3Fernando VeraD
- 1Ádám KovácsikG
- 11Hunor KuzmaD
- 26Milán SzekszárdiD
- 5Bálint VécseiD
- 9János HahnM
- 17Milán PetőM
- 8Balázs BaloghM
- 21Kristóf PappM
- 4Andor LapuM
- 10Zsolt HarasztiF
- 7József SzalaiF
- 20Márió ZekeD
- 24Bence LenzsérD
- 19Kevin HorváthM
- 13Dániel BödeF
- 16Balázs WiesnerF
- 28Márk GyetvánG
- 14Erik SilyeD
- 12Gabor VasD
- 30János SzabóD
Form going into Zalaegerszegi TE vs Paks
Zalaegerszegi TE
- L0-3away to MTK Budapest27 July 2026
Paks
- D2-2away to Panathinaikos30 July 2026
- W4-2Ferencvarosi TC26 July 2026
- L1-2Panathinaikos23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Paks | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Zalaegerszegi TE vs Paks
- 3 August 2026Zalaegerszegi TE 5–2 PaksNB I
- 14 March 2026Paks 1–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 29 November 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–0 PaksNB I
- 17 August 2025Paks 2–2 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 22 April 2025Paks 2–1 Zalaegerszegi TEMagyar Kupa
- 29 March 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–1 PaksNB I
Leading scorers: Zalaegerszegi TE and Paks
Zalaegerszegi TE
- Calderón2 goals
Paks
- J. Szalai6 goals1 assists
- M. Pető3 goals
- Z. Haraszti2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.