2 August 2026, 03:00 UTC

Cruz Azul vs Atlante FC Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Cruz Azul 2-3 Atlante FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% Cruz Azul, 20% draw, 14% Atlante FC — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cruz Azul at 66% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cruz Azul0%Draw1%Atlante FC99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
L. Calzadilla
44'
⚽L. Puenteassist: W. Portales
47'
⚽L. Calzadillaassist: Jhojan Julio
🔁G. Pioviout: C. Rodriguez
57'
🔁A. Montanoout: J. Paradela
57'
59'
🔁L. Puenteout: D. Gonzalez
⚽N. Ibanezassist: C. Rodriguez
60'
🔁C. Ebereout: G. Fernandez
61'
🔁L. Romeroout: E. Lira
61'
C. Rodriguez
68'
69'
🔁E. Pizzutoout: L. Mejia
W. Ditta
73'
75'
⚽Jhojan Julio (pen)
81'
🔁W. Portalesout: A. Escobar
81'
🔁L. Calzadillaout: W. Clar
🔁N. Ibanezout: E. Castaneda
86'
⚽G. Fernandez (pen)assist: G. Fernandez
90+3'
⚽A. Palavecinoassist: G. Fernandez
90+10'

Match stats — Cruz Azul vs Atlante FC

61%Possession39%
16Shots11
9On target7
7Corners5
2.72xG1.89

Goals against chances

Cruz Azul2 from 2.72 xGless than the chances were worth
Atlante FC3 from 1.89 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cruz Azul
  • 1A. Gudino
  • 16J. Marquez
  • 33G. Piovi
  • 4W. Ditta
  • 5J. Orozco
  • 3O. Campos
  • 18L. Romero
  • 8A. Palavecino
  • 10A. Montano
  • 7N. Ibanez
  • 11C. Ebere
Substitutes
  • 23K. Mier
  • 20J. Paradela
  • 49J. Diaz
  • 68C. Valdivia
  • 21G. Fernandez
  • 19C. Rodriguez
  • 6E. Lira
  • 28R. Rubio
  • 66J. Suarez
Coach: Joel Huiqui
Atlante FC
  • 1O. Jimenez
  • 29W. Portales
  • 6J. N. Carrera
  • 4E. Tercero
  • 3L. Sanchez
  • 34E. Jimenez
  • 8E. Pizzuto
  • 25M. Fernandez
  • 19L. Calzadilla
  • 9L. Puente
  • 7Jhojan Julio
Substitutes
  • 22R. Barragan
  • 37W. Clar
  • 15J. Charcopa
  • 199S. Garcia
  • 21J. Ibarra
  • 27A. Escobar
  • 20G. Adame
  • 17L. Mejia
  • 16D. Gonzalez
Coach: Ernesto Herrera Aguirre Miguel

Form going into Cruz Azul vs Atlante FC

Cruz Azul

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Puebla22 July 2026
  • W3-2away to Atletico San Luis18 July 2026

Atlante FC

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Club America25 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Necaxa17 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Cruz Azul148243223+926
16Atlante FC143561420-614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Cruz Azul and Atlante FC

Cruz Azul

GoalsAssists

  • N. Ibáñez52
  • G. Fernández51

Atlante FC

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Atlante FC won 3–2 at Cruz Azul. The model had leaned towards a win for Cruz Azul at 66% and given a win for Atlante FC 14%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 7 matches like this one. The goals: L. Puente 44' for Atlante FC, L. Calzadilla 47' for Atlante FC, N. Ibanez 60' for Cruz Azul, Jhojan Julio (penalty) 75' for Atlante FC, A. Palavecino 90+10' for Cruz Azul. On expected goals it finished 2.72–1.89.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.