2 August 2026, 03:00 UTC

Cruz Azul vs Atlante FC Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Cruz Azul 2-3 Atlante FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% Cruz Azul, 20% draw, 14% Atlante FC — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cruz Azul at 66% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cruz Azul0%Draw1%Atlante FC99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
L. Calzadilla
44'
⚽L. Puenteassist: W. Portales
47'
⚽L. Calzadillaassist: Jhojan Julio
🔁G. Pioviout: C. Rodriguez
57'
🔁A. Montanoout: J. Paradela
57'
59'
🔁L. Puenteout: D. Gonzalez
⚽N. Ibanezassist: C. Rodriguez
60'
🔁C. Ebereout: G. Fernandez
61'
🔁L. Romeroout: E. Lira
61'
C. Rodriguez
68'
69'
🔁E. Pizzutoout: L. Mejia
W. Ditta
73'
75'
⚽Jhojan Julio (pen)
81'
🔁W. Portalesout: A. Escobar
81'
🔁L. Calzadillaout: W. Clar
🔁N. Ibanezout: E. Castaneda
86'
⚽G. Fernandez (pen)assist: G. Fernandez
90+3'
⚽A. Palavecinoassist: G. Fernandez
90+10'

Match stats — Cruz Azul vs Atlante FC

61%Possession39%
16Shots11
9On target7
7Corners5
2.72xG1.89

Goals against chances

Cruz Azul2 from 2.72 xGless than the chances were worth
Atlante FC3 from 1.89 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cruz Azul
  • 1A. Gudino
  • 16J. Marquez
  • 33G. Piovi
  • 4W. Ditta
  • 5J. Orozco
  • 3O. Campos
  • 18L. Romero
  • 8A. Palavecino
  • 10A. Montano
  • 7N. Ibanez
  • 11C. Ebere
Substitutes
  • 23K. Mier
  • 20J. Paradela
  • 49J. Diaz
  • 68C. Valdivia
  • 21G. Fernandez
  • 19C. Rodriguez
  • 6E. Lira
  • 28R. Rubio
  • 66J. Suarez
Coach: Joel Huiqui
Atlante FC
  • 1O. Jimenez
  • 29W. Portales
  • 6J. N. Carrera
  • 4E. Tercero
  • 3L. Sanchez
  • 34E. Jimenez
  • 8E. Pizzuto
  • 25M. Fernandez
  • 19L. Calzadilla
  • 9L. Puente
  • 7Jhojan Julio
Substitutes
  • 22R. Barragan
  • 37W. Clar
  • 15J. Charcopa
  • 199S. Garcia
  • 21J. Ibarra
  • 27A. Escobar
  • 20G. Adame
  • 17L. Mejia
  • 16D. Gonzalez
Coach: Ernesto Herrera Aguirre Miguel

Form going into Cruz Azul vs Atlante FC

Cruz Azul

  • W2-1Puebla22 July 2026
  • W3-2away to Atletico San Luis18 July 2026

Atlante FC

  • D1-1Club America25 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Necaxa17 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Cruz Azul85031614+215
15Atlante FC8143712-57

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cruz Azul vs Atlante FC

  • 2 August 2026Cruz Azul 2–3 Atlante FCLiga MX

Leading scorers: Cruz Azul and Atlante FC

Cruz Azul

  • J. Márquez3 goals1 assists
  • N. Ibáñez3 goals
  • J. Paradela2 goals4 assists

Atlante FC

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.