3 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Odense vs Sonderjyske Superliga prediction & result

Nature Energy Park, Odense
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Odense 1-0 Sonderjyske.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Odense, 24% draw, 29% Sonderjyske — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Odense at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Odense96%Draw4%Sonderjyske0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
🔁M. Olesenout: D. Boison
46'
🔁D. L. Gretarssonout: A. Bergholt
🔁J. Bondeout: R. Falk
60'
🔁A. Sorensenout: J. Niemiec
60'
🔁F. Arpout: M. Andersen
67'
69'
🔁out: T. Haltvik
69'
🔁A. Lyngout: L. Qamili
🔁U. Jenssenout: P. Therkildsen
75'
78'
🔁E. Duruout: G. Wagner
⚽N. Ganaus
81'
Marcus McCoy
85'
85'
Lirim Qamili

Match stats — Odense vs Sonderjyske

56%Possession44%
17Shots8
4On target3
7Corners9
2.1xG0.64

Goals against chances

Odense1 from 2.10 xGless than the chances were worth
Sonderjyske0 from 0.64 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Odense 4-4-2
  • 16V. MyhraG
  • 15M. McCoyD
  • 13J. AskouD
  • 29J. GomezD
  • 5U. JenssenD
  • 3A. SorensenM
  • 6J. BondeM
  • 22I. OuedraogoM
  • 9T. KeskinenM
  • 17N. GanausF
  • 7F. ArpF
Substitutes
  • 1M. HansenG
  • 8R. FalkM
  • 2P. TherkildsenD
  • 11J. NiemiecF
  • 28M. AndersenD
  • 19N. Juul-SandbergM
  • 40N. LassenM
  • 21V. FriisM
  • 26L. LegolasF
Coach: Alexander Zorniger
Sonderjyske 3-4-2-1
  • 16M. BundgaardG
  • 12M. SoulasD
  • 5M. JensenD
  • 4D. L. GretarssonD
  • 3S. WaeverM
  • 7S. EminiM
  • 10M. OlesenM
  • 23E. DuruM
  • 8M. HaidaraF
  • 11A. LyngF
  • 9M. HoppeF
Substitutes
  • 1N. FloG
  • 22A. OggesenM
  • 14T. HaltvikF
  • 30G. WagnerD
  • 31I. Seydi
  • 32D. BoisonF
  • 13D. WilkinsD
  • 15L. QamiliF
  • 28A. BergholtM
Coach: Fatah Abdirahman

Form going into Odense vs Sonderjyske

Odense

  • L0-1away to Viborg24 July 2026

Sonderjyske

  • L2-3FC Midtjylland26 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Odense8224713-68
12Sonderjyske8026819-112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Odense vs Sonderjyske

  • 3 August 2026Odense 1–0 SonderjyskeSuperliga
  • 1 March 2026Sonderjyske 1–0 OdenseSuperliga
  • 3 October 2025Odense 1–1 SonderjyskeSuperliga
  • 27 June 2025Odense 0–2 SonderjyskeFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 March 2025Odense 1–0 SonderjyskeFriendlies Clubs
  • 10 January 2025Sonderjyske 2–3 OdenseFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Odense and Sonderjyske

Odense

No player in Superliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Sonderjyske

  • M. Haidara3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.