Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv First League prediction & result
Final score: Spartak Varna 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 72% Spartak Varna, 16% draw, 12% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 1.39, 6.25 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Varna at 72% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 23Plamen IlievG
- 76David Valverde JuanM
- 44Angel GranchovD
- 45Joey TshitokuD
- 4Boris IvanovD
- 8Damian YordanovM
- 17Tsvetoslav MarinovM
- 77Anton IvanovF
- 82Tomás SilvaM
- 10Jota LopesM
- 99Georgi TrifonovF
- 19Sámuel MajorM
- 9Tsvetelin ChunchukovF
- 11Boubacar HanneF
- 6Ricardo SousaM
- 72Vasco OliveiraD
- 1Pedro VictorG
- 22Jhonatan CueroD
- 7BuáM
- 80Ángel Gomes ArevaloF
- 1Bojan MilosavljevićG
- 2Adrián CovaD
- 4Andrei ChindrişD
- 13Lucas RyanD
- 5Todor PavlovD
- 12Efe AliM
- 22Ivaylo IvanovM
- 7Sevi IdrizM
- 39Parvizdzhon UmarbaevM
- 94Cătălin ItuM
- 99Julien LamyM
- 6Miha TrdanM
- 29Christ LongvilleF
- 44Milan PetrovicD
- 9Axel VelevF
- 40Petar ZovkoG
- 3Dalil AliD
- 26Denis KirashkiD
- 30Aleksandar AleksandrovM
- 31Yoan Dzhelepov
Form going into Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Cherno More Varna26 July 2026
- D2-2CSKA 194817 July 2026
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Ludogorets18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 13 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 21 February 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 30 August 2025Spartak Varna 1–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 7 April 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–2 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 23 October 2024Spartak Varna 1–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 28 April 2023Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
Leading scorers: Spartak Varna and Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
GoalsAssists
- Georg Stojanovski11
- J. Tshitoku10
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
No player in First League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Spartak Varna beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0. The model had made a win for Spartak Varna its most likely outcome, at 72%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: D. Valverde 8' for Spartak Varna.