First League · Regular Season - 3 · 3 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Stadion Spartak, Varna

The model makes it 72% Spartak Varna, 16% draw, 12% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 1.39, 6.25 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: Spartak Varna 2.76, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.09.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

62%
Both teams to score
74%
Over 2.5 goals
26%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-1 9%2-0 8%3-1 8%

Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

  • 21 February 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 30 August 2025Spartak Varna 1–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 7 April 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–2 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 23 October 2024Spartak Varna 1–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 28 April 2023Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 10 October 2022Spartak Varna 0–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Spartak Varna the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.76 expected goals for Spartak Varna against 1.09 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Spartak Varna's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.97 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.