3 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv First League prediction & result

Stadion Spartak, Varna
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Spartak Varna 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 72% Spartak Varna, 16% draw, 12% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 1.39, 6.25 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Spartak Varna at 72% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Spartak Varna97%Draw3%Lokomotiv Plovdiv0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Valverde
8'
31'
I. Ivanov
D. Yordanov
50'
55'
P. Umarbaev
56'
🔁J. Lamyout: C. Longville
56'
🔁I. Ivanovout: M. Trdan
🔁A. Ivanovout: B. Hanne
57'
🔁D. Yordanovout: S. Major
57'
🔁G. Trifonovout: T. Chunchukov
57'
61'
A. Chindris
62'
C. Longville
65'
🔁A. Chindrisout: M. Petrovic
65'
🔁S. Idrizout: A. Velev
74'
🔁P. Umarbaevout: A. Aleksandrov
🔁T. Silvaout: R. Sousa
84'
A. Granchov
86'
P. Iliev
90'
🔁Jota Lopesout: V. Oliveira
90+4'
S. Major
90+5'
V. Oliveira
90+6'
90+6'
E. Ali

Line-ups

Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 23Plamen IlievG
  • 76David Valverde JuanM
  • 44Angel GranchovD
  • 45Joey TshitokuD
  • 4Boris IvanovD
  • 8Damian YordanovM
  • 17Tsvetoslav MarinovM
  • 77Anton IvanovF
  • 82Tomás SilvaM
  • 10Jota LopesM
  • 99Georgi TrifonovF
Substitutes
  • 19Sámuel MajorM
  • 9Tsvetelin ChunchukovF
  • 11Boubacar HanneF
  • 6Ricardo SousaM
  • 72Vasco OliveiraD
  • 1Pedro VictorG
  • 22Jhonatan CueroD
  • 7BuáM
  • 80Ángel Gomes ArevaloF
Coach: Yasen Petrov
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1Bojan MilosavljevićG
  • 2Adrián CovaD
  • 4Andrei ChindrişD
  • 13Lucas RyanD
  • 5Todor PavlovD
  • 12Efe AliM
  • 22Ivaylo IvanovM
  • 7Sevi IdrizM
  • 39Parvizdzhon UmarbaevM
  • 94Cătălin ItuM
  • 99Julien LamyM
Substitutes
  • 6Miha TrdanM
  • 29Christ LongvilleF
  • 44Milan PetrovicD
  • 9Axel VelevF
  • 40Petar ZovkoG
  • 3Dalil AliD
  • 26Denis KirashkiD
  • 30Aleksandar AleksandrovM
  • 31Yoan Dzhelepov
Coach: Dusan Kosic

Form going into Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Spartak Varna

  • W3-0away to Cherno More Varna26 July 2026
  • D2-2CSKA 194817 July 2026

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

  • W2-1Septemvri Sofia26 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Ludogorets18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Spartak Varna92431014-410
11Lokomotiv Plovdiv9207412-86

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

  • 3 August 2026Spartak Varna 1–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 21 February 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 30 August 2025Spartak Varna 1–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 7 April 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–2 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 23 October 2024Spartak Varna 1–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 28 April 2023Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.