Liga MX · Apertura - 3 · 2 August 2026, 01:00 UTC

Atlas vs Monterrey

Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara

The model makes it 49% Atlas, 25% draw, 26% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Atlas 1.71, Monterrey 1.20.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

58%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%2-1 10%1-0 9%

Head-to-head: Atlas vs Monterrey

  • 12 April 2026Atlas 0–0 MonterreyLiga MX
  • 5 January 2026Atlas 1–2 MonterreyFriendlies Clubs
  • 27 July 2025Monterrey 3–1 AtlasLiga MX
  • 30 January 2025Atlas 3–3 MonterreyLiga MX
  • 3 November 2024Monterrey 4–0 AtlasLiga MX
  • 17 March 2024Atlas 1–2 MonterreyLiga MX
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Atlas the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Atlas against 1.2 for Monterrey. Atlas's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.41 for Monterrey.