Atlas vs Monterrey Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlas 0-2 Monterrey.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Atlas, 25% draw, 26% Monterrey — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlas at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 3 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlas vs Monterrey
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Camilo VargasG
- 3Jorge SánchezD
- 28Manuel CapassoD
- 21Rodrigo SchlegelD
- 16Milton ValenzuelaD
- 6Edgar ZaldívarM
- 27Victor RiosM
- 58Arturo GonzálezM
- 10Luís EstevesM
- 11DukF
- 8Ryan MmaeeF
- 2Gustavo FerrareisF
- 23Sergio HernandezM
- 15Paulo RamírezD
- 17Jose LozanoD
- 203Jose MartinF
- 22Antonio SánchezG
- 13Gaddi AguirreD
- 44Juan José PurataM
- 208Jesús GuillénM
- 22Luis CárdenasG
- 4Victor GuzmánD
- 13Carlos SalcedoD
- 19Alonso AcevesD
- 10Luca OrellanoM
- 25Orbelín PinedaM
- 8Óliver TorresM
- 17Jesús CoronaM
- 7Lucas OcamposF
- 9Diego RossiF
- 99Hugo CuypersF
- 2Ricardo ChávezD
- 3Gerardo ArteagaD
- 30Jorge RodríguezM
- 5Fidel AmbrízM
- 11Iker FimbresM
- 31César RamosG
- 21Luis ReyesD
- 18Cesar GarzaM
- 27Roberto de la RosaF
Form going into Atlas vs Monterrey
Atlas
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna26 July 2026
- W3-2away to Leon18 July 2026
Monterrey
- L1-2away to Necaxa26 July 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Atlas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Monterrey
- 2 August 2026Atlas 0–2 MonterreyLiga MX
- 12 April 2026Atlas 0–0 MonterreyLiga MX
- 5 January 2026Atlas 1–2 MonterreyFriendlies Clubs
- 27 July 2025Monterrey 3–1 AtlasLiga MX
- 30 January 2025Atlas 3–3 MonterreyLiga MX
- 3 November 2024Monterrey 4–0 AtlasLiga MX
Leading scorers: Atlas and Monterrey
Atlas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Monterrey
- L. Ocampos5 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.