Atlante FC
vs
Santos Laguna
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Atlante FC 0–1 Santos Laguna
The model makes it 35% Atlante FC, 29% draw, 36% Santos Laguna — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Atlante FC 1.25, Santos Laguna 1.26.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
A tight game: Atlante FC and Santos Laguna are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Atlante FC's rating is built from 14 Liga MX matches and Santos Laguna's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 794 matches.
Key facts
- Atlante FC are 15th on 14 points from 14 games; Santos Laguna are 9th on 19 points from 13 games — Liga MX.
- Atlante FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Atletico San Luis.
- Santos Laguna are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Pumas UNAM.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santos Laguna at 36% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna
Atlante FC
Liga MX
- L0-1Atletico San Luis24 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Juarez21 October 2026
- L1-2Pumas UNAM17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Club Queretaro10 October 2026
- W4-2Monterrey26 September 2026
Santos Laguna
Liga MX
- W2-0Pumas UNAM22 October 2026
- W5-0Club Queretaro17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Atletico San Luis11 October 2026
- W1-0CF Pachuca27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Toluca21 September 2026
What these results say
- Atlante FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna won every one of these 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 14 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atlante FC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today
Santos Laguna
Chance to finish in the top eight · 67% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna
- 19 December 2025Santos Laguna 0–3 Atlante FCFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Atlante FC and Santos Laguna
Atlante FC
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Santos Laguna
GoalsAssists
- Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atlante FC carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.59 for Santos Laguna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Atlante FC and 1.26 for Santos Laguna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlante FC rate 0.57 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santos Laguna rate 0.76 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atlante FC a 0% chance of the title and Santos Laguna 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santos Laguna the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Atlante FC against 1.26 for Santos Laguna. Atlante FC's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.27 for Santos Laguna.
How the model reaches 36% for Santos Laguna to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Santos Laguna to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Atlante FC's ratings add 20 points and Santos Laguna's ratings take away 13 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage29%−8
- Atlante FC's ratings49%+20
- Santos Laguna's ratings36%−13
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atlante FC at home · Santos Laguna away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Atlante FC 13, Santos Laguna 13.
Atlante FC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Santos Laguna have let in 2 there.
Santos Laguna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Atlante FC have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Atlante FC
- at Club Tijuana21 Nov · Liga MXwin 22%
Santos Laguna
- vs Leon21 Nov · Liga MXwin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.