Leon
vs
Toluca
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Leon 1–2 Toluca
The model makes it 32% Leon, 26% draw, 42% Toluca — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Leon 1.41, Toluca 1.67.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Toluca: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Leon are 5th on 18 points from 11 games; Toluca are 2nd on 20 points from 11 games — Liga MX.
- Leon are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Puebla.
- Toluca are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Tigres UANL.
- Last 6 meetings: Toluca 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 September 2026, ended Toluca 2–0 Leon.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leon vs Toluca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toluca at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Leon vs Toluca
Leon
- D1-1away to Puebla10 October 2026
- W2-1FC Juarez28 September 2026
- D1-1away to Club Queretaro21 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico San Luis15 September 2026
- L1-3away to Pumas UNAM11 September 2026
Toluca
- L2-3away to Tigres UANL10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Cruz Azul26 September 2026
- L2-3Santos Laguna21 September 2026
- W1-0away to Puebla16 September 2026
- W5-2Atlas12 September 2026
What these results say
- Leon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Leon.
- Toluca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toluca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Toluca had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Leon
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
Toluca
Chance to finish in the top four · 73% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Leon vs Toluca
Leon and Toluca have met 6 times in the records we hold, Toluca has won 4 of them to Leon's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
Toluca won the last one 2–0 on 3 Sep 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| Toluca | 4 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 28 goals, an average of 4.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 3 Sep 2026
Leagues CupToluca 2–0 Leon - 26 Apr 2026
Liga MXToluca 4–1 Leon - 5 Oct 2025
Liga MXLeon 2–4 Toluca - 9 Feb 2025
Liga MXLeon 3–3 Toluca - 2 Nov 2024
Liga MXToluca 2–2 Leon - 3 Feb 2024
Liga MXToluca 4–1 Leon
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Leon and Toluca
Leon
GoalsAssists
- D. Arcila40
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas50
- A. Vega42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Leon carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.75 for Toluca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Leon and 1.67 for Toluca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leon rate 0.68 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toluca rate 0.98 and 1.20.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leon a 0.5% chance of the title and Toluca 15.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Toluca the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Leon against 1.67 for Toluca. Leon's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.2 for Toluca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Leon at home · Toluca away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LeonToluca
Leon are 4th after 11 Liga MX matches (between 4th and 16th so far); Toluca are 2nd after 11 (between 1st and 6th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Leon 11, Toluca 11.
Leon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Toluca have let in 5 there.
Toluca score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Leon have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Leon
- at Cruz Azul2 Nov · Liga MXwin 21%
- vs Guadalajara Chivas9 Nov · Liga MXwin 31%
- at Santos Laguna21 Nov · Liga MXwin 30%
Toluca
- at Club America1 Nov · Liga MXwin 30%
- vs Monterrey8 Nov · Liga MXwin 57%
- at CF Pachuca21 Nov · Liga MXwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.