Necaxa
vs
FC Juarez
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Necaxa 2–1 FC Juarez
The model makes it 51% Necaxa, 24% draw, 25% FC Juarez — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Necaxa 2.13, FC Juarez 1.33.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Necaxa are 17th on 9 points from 11 games; FC Juarez are bottom on 4 points from 11 games — Liga MX.
- Necaxa have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to CF Pachuca.
- FC Juarez have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Club Tijuana.
- Last 6 meetings: Necaxa 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2026, ended FC Juarez 1–2 Necaxa.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Necaxa vs FC Juarez
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Necaxa at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Necaxa vs FC Juarez
Necaxa
- D3-3away to CF Pachuca11 October 2026
- L2-4Club America28 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico San Luis19 September 2026
- L0-1Puebla12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Tigres UANL6 September 2026
FC Juarez
- D1-1Club Tijuana10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Leon28 September 2026
- W2-0Tigres UANL19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos Laguna14 September 2026
- L0-2CF Pachuca5 September 2026
What these results say
- Necaxa did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Necaxa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 69% today
FC Juarez
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 99% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Necaxa vs FC Juarez
- 15 February 2026FC Juarez 1–2 NecaxaLiga MX
- 13 September 2025Necaxa 1–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 16 April 2025FC Juarez 2–2 NecaxaLiga MX
- 24 August 2024Necaxa 3–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 4 February 2024FC Juarez 2–2 NecaxaLiga MX
- 16 September 2023Necaxa 1–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
Leading scorers: Necaxa and FC Juarez
Necaxa
GoalsAssists
- J. Carranza72
FC Juarez
GoalsAssists
- Ó. Estupiñán60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Necaxa carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.35 for FC Juarez. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.13 goals for Necaxa and 1.33 for FC Juarez. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Necaxa rate 0.71 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Juarez rate 0.64 and 1.73.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Necaxa the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Necaxa against 1.33 for FC Juarez. Necaxa's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.73 for FC Juarez.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Necaxa at home · FC Juarez away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
NecaxaFC Juarez
Necaxa are 17th after 11 Liga MX matches (between 1st and 17th so far); FC Juarez are 18th after 11 (between 17th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Necaxa 11, FC Juarez 11.
Necaxa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); FC Juarez have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Necaxa
- at Santos Laguna1 Nov · Liga MXwin 27%
- vs Club Tijuana7 Nov · Liga MXwin 36%
- at Club Queretaro23 Nov · Liga MXwin 18%
FC Juarez
- vs Club Queretaro31 Oct · Liga MXwin 27%
- at Atletico San Luis7 Nov · Liga MXwin 22%
- vs Atlas21 Nov · Liga MXwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.