Necaxa
vs
Club Tijuana
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Necaxa 0–1 Club Tijuana
The model makes it 33% Necaxa, 28% draw, 39% Club Tijuana — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Necaxa 1.27, Club Tijuana 1.45.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Edge to Club Tijuana: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Necaxa's rating is built from 48 Liga MX matches and Club Tijuana's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 794 matches.
Key facts
- Necaxa are 17th on 10 points from 14 games; Club Tijuana are 11th on 17 points from 12 games — Liga MX.
- Necaxa have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to FC Juarez.
- Club Tijuana have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Toluca.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Necaxa 3–0 Club Tijuana.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Necaxa vs Club Tijuana
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Tijuana at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Necaxa vs Club Tijuana
Necaxa
Liga MX
- D1-1FC Juarez24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Guadalajara Chivas21 October 2026
- L0-2Atlas17 October 2026
- D3-3away to CF Pachuca11 October 2026
- L2-4Club America28 September 2026
Club Tijuana
Liga MX
- D2-2away to Toluca22 October 2026
- D0-0Puebla17 October 2026
- D1-1away to FC Juarez10 October 2026
- L2-3Atlas26 September 2026
- D2-2away to CF Pachuca21 September 2026
What these results say
- Necaxa did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 10 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Necaxa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 96% today
Club Tijuana
Chance to finish in the top eight · 41% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Club Tijuana
- 21 March 2026Necaxa 3–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 1 September 2025Club Tijuana 3–0 NecaxaLiga MX
- 5 April 2025Club Tijuana 1–2 NecaxaLiga MX
- 19 October 2024Necaxa 1–2 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 6 April 2024Club Tijuana 2–3 NecaxaLiga MX
- 6 January 2024Necaxa 1–3 Club TijuanaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Necaxa and Club Tijuana
Necaxa
GoalsAssists
- J. Carranza72
Club Tijuana
GoalsAssists
- G. Mora51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Necaxa carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.6 for Club Tijuana. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Necaxa and 1.45 for Club Tijuana. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Necaxa rate 0.62 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Tijuana rate 0.72 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Necaxa a 0% chance of the title and Club Tijuana 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Tijuana the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Necaxa against 1.45 for Club Tijuana. Necaxa's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.19 for Club Tijuana.
How the model reaches 39% for Club Tijuana to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Club Tijuana to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Necaxa's ratings add 26 points and Club Tijuana's ratings take away 16 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage29%−8
- Necaxa's ratings55%+26
- Club Tijuana's ratings39%−16
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Necaxa at home · Club Tijuana away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Necaxa 14, Club Tijuana 12.
Necaxa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Club Tijuana have let in 4 there.
Club Tijuana score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Necaxa have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Necaxa
- at Club Queretaro23 Nov · Liga MXwin 21%
Club Tijuana
- vs Atlante FC21 Nov · Liga MXwin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.