Ludogorets
vs
Slavia Sofia
First League prediction
The model makes it 72% Ludogorets, 21% draw, 7% Slavia Sofia — fair odds of 1.39, 4.76 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Ludogorets 1.88, Slavia Sofia 0.43.
Both teams to score: 30%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ludogorets
- W2-1Botev Vratsa2 August 2026
- W2-0away to Dunav Ruse27 July 2026
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv18 July 2026
Slavia Sofia
- D1-1Lokomotiv Sofia31 July 2026
- L0-1away to Arda Kardzhali24 July 2026
- D0-0CSKA Sofia20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ludogorets | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
Ludogorets carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.18 for Slavia Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Ludogorets W-W-W; Slavia Sofia D-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Ludogorets and 0.43 for Slavia Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ludogorets rate 0.71 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slavia Sofia rate 0.31 and 1.40.
That points to 41% for over two and a half goals and 30% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (18%), 2-0 (18%), 3-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ludogorets the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Ludogorets against 0.43 for Slavia Sofia. Ludogorets's attack/defence rating is 0.71/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.31/1.4 for Slavia Sofia.