30 July 2026, 18:30 UTC

Austria Vienna vs FK Liepaja UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Generali Arena, Vienna
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Austria Vienna 3-1 FK Liepaja.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% Austria Vienna, 22% draw, 14% FK Liepaja — fair odds of 1.56, 4.55 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Austria Vienna at 64% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Austria Vienna99%Draw1%FK Liepaja0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽A. Haidara
8'
Marvin Martins
Florian Wustinger
11'
16'
Leonel Strumia
⚽J. Feddersenassist: P. Maybach
19'
⚽K. Boateng
29'
34'
Rodolphe Ekou
36'
🔁E. Rodolpheout: I. Korotkovs
42'
🔁V. Isajevsout: A. Korobenko
🔁F. Wustingerout: J. Handl
46'
46'
🔁A. Ogunniyiout: K. Leidsman
🔁K. Boatengout: J. Eggestein
60'
🔁Lee Kang-Heeout: M. Fischer
60'
🔁I. Buhariout: V. Toifl
60'
⚽R. Ranftlassist: M. Fischer
66'
72'
🔁A. Haidaraout: A. Leite
72'
🔁D. Patijcuksout: L. Lakutis
🔁J. Hettwerout: H. Deshishku
73'

Match stats — Austria Vienna vs FK Liepaja

66%Possession34%
17Shots10
10On target4
8Corners3

Line-ups

Austria Vienna 3-4-3
  • 1S. Sahin-RadlingerG
  • 3I. BuhariD
  • 16Lee Kang-HeeD
  • 4J. FeddersenD
  • 26R. RanftlM
  • 6P. MaybachM
  • 22F. WustingerM
  • 21M. SchablasM
  • 7V. MarkovicF
  • 14K. BoatengF
  • 20J. HettwerF
Substitutes
  • 13L. WedlG
  • 99M. KosG
  • 19J. EggesteinF
  • 30M. FischerM
  • 37M. WelsM
  • 10S. SaljicM
  • 40D. NnodimD
  • 44V. ToiflD
  • 46J. HandlD
Coach: Stephan Helm
FK Liepaja 4-2-3-1
  • 12D. PetkovicG
  • 35V. SorokinsD
  • 26V. IsajevsD
  • 4M. MartinsD
  • 2B. StraalmanD
  • 6E. RodolpheM
  • 32L. StrumiaM
  • 7A. OgunniyiM
  • 70D. PatijcuksM
  • 23A. HaidaraM
  • 18E. OlokoF
Substitutes
  • 24D. OssG
  • 3K. IljinsD
  • 14D. GueyeF
  • 40R. UntulisM
  • 28A. KorobenkoM
  • 33I. KorotkovsD
  • 44K. LeidsmanF
  • 77A. LeiteF
  • 29L. LakutisM
Coach: Andreas Alm

Form going into Austria Vienna vs FK Liepaja

Austria Vienna

  • W2-0away to FK Liepaja23 July 2026

FK Liepaja

  • L0-2Austria Vienna23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Austria Vienna vs FK Liepaja

  • 23 July 2026FK Liepaja 0–2 Austria ViennaUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Austria Vienna and FK Liepaja

Austria Vienna

  • J. Hettwer2 goals

FK Liepaja

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.