30 July 2026, 18:30 UTC

Austria Vienna vs FK Liepaja UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Generali Arena, Vienna
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Austria Vienna 3-1 FK Liepaja.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% Austria Vienna, 22% draw, 14% FK Liepaja — fair odds of 1.56, 4.55 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: FK Liepaja 0–2 Austria Vienna (23 Jul) →

Austria Vienna went through 5–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Austria Vienna at 64% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Austria Vienna99%Draw1%FK Liepaja0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽A. Haidara
8'
Marvin Martins
Florian Wustinger
11'
16'
Leonel Strumia
⚽J. Feddersenassist: P. Maybach
19'
⚽K. Boateng
29'
34'
Rodolphe Ekou
36'
🔁E. Rodolpheout: I. Korotkovs
42'
🔁V. Isajevsout: A. Korobenko
🔁F. Wustingerout: J. Handl
46'
46'
🔁A. Ogunniyiout: K. Leidsman
🔁K. Boatengout: J. Eggestein
60'
🔁Lee Kang-Heeout: M. Fischer
60'
🔁I. Buhariout: V. Toifl
60'
⚽R. Ranftlassist: M. Fischer
66'
72'
🔁A. Haidaraout: A. Leite
72'
🔁D. Patijcuksout: L. Lakutis
🔁J. Hettwerout: H. Deshishku
73'

Match stats — Austria Vienna vs FK Liepaja

66%Possession34%
17Shots10
10On target4
8Corners3

Line-ups

Austria Vienna 3-4-3
  • 1S. Sahin-RadlingerG
  • 3I. BuhariD
  • 16Lee Kang-HeeD
  • 4J. FeddersenD
  • 26R. RanftlM
  • 6P. MaybachM
  • 22F. WustingerM
  • 21M. SchablasM
  • 7V. MarkovicF
  • 14K. BoatengF
  • 20J. HettwerF
Substitutes
  • 13L. WedlG
  • 99M. KosG
  • 19J. EggesteinF
  • 30M. FischerM
  • 37M. WelsM
  • 10S. SaljicM
  • 40D. NnodimD
  • 44V. ToiflD
  • 46J. HandlD
Coach: Stephan Helm
FK Liepaja 4-2-3-1
  • 12D. PetkovicG
  • 35V. SorokinsD
  • 26V. IsajevsD
  • 4M. MartinsD
  • 2B. StraalmanD
  • 6E. RodolpheM
  • 32L. StrumiaM
  • 7A. OgunniyiM
  • 70D. PatijcuksM
  • 23A. HaidaraM
  • 18E. OlokoF
Substitutes
  • 24D. OssG
  • 3K. IljinsD
  • 14D. GueyeF
  • 40R. UntulisM
  • 28A. KorobenkoM
  • 33I. KorotkovsD
  • 44K. LeidsmanF
  • 77A. LeiteF
  • 29L. LakutisM
Coach: Andreas Alm

Form going into Austria Vienna vs FK Liepaja

Austria Vienna

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to FK Liepaja23 July 2026

FK Liepaja

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Austria Vienna23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Austria Vienna vs FK Liepaja

  • 23 July 2026FK Liepaja 0–2 Austria ViennaUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Austria Vienna and FK Liepaja

Austria Vienna

GoalsAssists

  • J. Eggestein30

FK Liepaja

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Austria Vienna beat FK Liepaja 3–1. The model had made a win for Austria Vienna its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: A. Haidara 4' for FK Liepaja, J. Feddersen 19' for Austria Vienna, K. Boateng 29' for Austria Vienna, R. Ranftl 66' for Austria Vienna. Sent off: Marvin Martins (FK Liepaja) 8'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.