23 July 2026, 16:00 UTC

Flora Tallinn vs The New Saints UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Flora Tallinn 1-0 The New Saints.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Flora Tallinn, 45% draw, 20% The New Saints — fair odds of 2.86, 2.22 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: The New Saints v Flora Tallinn, 30 Jul →

Flora Tallinn went through on penalties, after 1–1 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts the draw at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽R. Valdmetsassist: S. Zenjov
31'
61'
🔁J. Williamsout: E. Farrell
61'
🔁D. Cornessout: R. Holden
61'
🔁R. Brobbelout: B. Clark
🔁R. Valdmetsout: T. Usta
64'
🔁S. Zenjovout: R. Alliku
69'
🔁D. Kuraksinout: I. Antonov
72'
90+1'
Daniel Williams

Line-ups

Flora Tallinn 4-3-3
  • 33Evert GrünvaldG
  • 7Danil KuraksinM
  • 23Mihhail KolobovD
  • 3Airon KolloD
  • 26Sander TovstikD
  • 18Remo ValdmetsM
  • 32Vladislav KreidaM
  • 14Tony VarjundM
  • 20Sergei ZenjovM
  • 11Rauno SappinenF
  • 29Sander AlamaaM
Substitutes
  • 17Taaniel UstaF
  • 9Rauno AllikuM
  • 67Ilja AntonovM
  • 22Andero TatrikG
  • 99Kaur KivilaG
  • 6Robert VeeringD
  • 24Oscar PihelaD
  • 53Ronald SammulD
  • 8Tristan Toomas TeeväliM
Coach: Konstantin Vasiliev
The New Saints 4-3-3
  • 1Nathan ShepperdG
  • 22Danny DaviesD
  • 16Dynel SimeuD
  • 6Jack BodenhamD
  • 10Daniel RedmondM
  • 21Leo SmithM
  • 14Daniel WilliamsD
  • 4Dominic CornessM
  • 8Ryan BrobbelM
  • 17Jordan WilliamsF
  • 20Rhys HughesM
Substitutes
  • 15Eoin FarrellM
  • 18Rory HoldenM
  • 19Ben ClarkM
  • 30Jack EdwardsG
  • 2Jacob OwenD
  • 12Harvey Godsmark-FordD
  • 23Zach NolanD
  • 31Ben WoollamD
  • 34Joshua LockM
Coach: Craig Harrison

The result against the call

Flora Tallinn beat The New Saints 1–0. The model had leaned towards a draw at 45% and given a win for Flora Tallinn 35%. The goal: R. Valdmets 31' for Flora Tallinn.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.