30 July 2026, 19:00 UTC

Hibernian vs Malisheva UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Easter Road, Edinburgh
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Final score: Hibernian 4-1 Malisheva.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Hibernian, 23% draw, 44% Malisheva — fair odds of 3.03, 4.35 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Malisheva 2–0 Hibernian (23 Jul) →

Hibernian went through 4–3 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Malisheva at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hibernian99%Draw1%Malisheva0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽O. Eldingassist: M. Boyle
9'
⚽F. Passlack
15'
Martin Boyle
22'
Josh Mulligan
31'
34'
🔁V. Isgandarliout: V. Nafiu
⚽N. Loweassist: O. Elding
35'
46'
🔁K. Shaniout: A. Pira
⚽M. Boyle
57'
🔁M. Boyleout: J. Newell
63'
🔁A. Mayorout: C. Cadden
63'
🔁J. Mulliganout: A. Abdulai
63'
66'
🔁D. Ibishiout: O. Bajraktari
66'
🔁L. Xhylaniout: K. Dulaj
🔁N. Loweout: T. Klidje
78'
84'
⚽O. Bajraktariassist: K. Dulaj
Thibault Klidjé
85'
90+3'
Donart Vitija

Line-ups

Hibernian 3-4-1-2
  • 1R. SallingerG
  • 5W. O'HoraD
  • 6J. KerrD
  • 21J. ObitaD
  • 25F. PasslackM
  • 8J. MulliganM
  • 14M. ChaiwaM
  • 3A. MayorM
  • 10M. BoyleF
  • 7O. EldingF
  • 9N. LoweF
Substitutes
  • 13J. SmithG
  • 35F. OwensG
  • 4G. HanleyD
  • 11J. NewellM
  • 12C. CaddenM
  • 18T. KlidjeF
  • 20R. Molotnikov
  • 27K. MegwaM
  • 30J. MacIntyreM
Coach: David Gray
Malisheva 4-3-3
  • 1I. AvdyliG
  • 55K. ShaniD
  • 5D. KryeziuD
  • 27A. SkovgaardD
  • 2A. VeliuD
  • 6B. FeratiM
  • 10L. XhylaniM
  • 30D. VitijaM
  • 17V. Isgandarli
  • 99D. IbishiF
  • 7K. Uka
Substitutes
  • 25A. KanuricG
  • 3O. BajraktariD
  • 8M. BushajM
  • 9K. Dulaj
  • 14K. LumaM
  • 18V. NafiuM
  • 20A. Pira
  • 33R. MuratiD
Coach: Jusufi Bekim

Form going into Hibernian vs Malisheva

Hibernian

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Malisheva23 July 2026

Malisheva

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Hibernian23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Malisheva

  • 23 July 2026Malisheva 2–0 HibernianUEFA Europa Conference League

The result against the call

Hibernian beat Malisheva 4–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Malisheva at 44% and given a win for Hibernian 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: O. Elding 9' for Hibernian, F. Passlack 15' for Hibernian, N. Lowe 35' for Hibernian, M. Boyle 57' for Hibernian, O. Bajraktari 84' for Malisheva.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.