30 July 2026, 19:00 UTC

Hibernian vs Malisheva UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Easter Road, Edinburgh
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Hibernian 4-1 Malisheva.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Hibernian, 23% draw, 44% Malisheva — fair odds of 3.03, 4.35 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Malisheva at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hibernian99%Draw1%Malisheva0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽O. Eldingassist: M. Boyle
9'
⚽F. Passlack
15'
Martin Boyle
22'
Josh Mulligan
31'
34'
🔁V. Isgandarliout: V. Nafiu
⚽N. Loweassist: O. Elding
35'
46'
🔁K. Shaniout: A. Pira
⚽M. Boyle
57'
🔁M. Boyleout: J. Newell
63'
🔁A. Mayorout: C. Cadden
63'
🔁J. Mulliganout: A. Abdulai
63'
66'
🔁D. Ibishiout: O. Bajraktari
66'
🔁L. Xhylaniout: K. Dulaj
🔁N. Loweout: T. Klidje
78'
84'
⚽O. Bajraktariassist: K. Dulaj
Thibault Klidjé
85'
90+3'
Donart Vitija

Line-ups

Hibernian 3-4-1-2
  • 1R. SallingerG
  • 5W. O'HoraD
  • 6J. KerrD
  • 21J. ObitaD
  • 25F. PasslackM
  • 8J. MulliganM
  • 14M. ChaiwaM
  • 3A. MayorM
  • 10M. BoyleF
  • 7O. EldingF
  • 9N. LoweF
Substitutes
  • 13J. SmithG
  • 35F. OwensG
  • 4G. HanleyD
  • 11J. NewellM
  • 12C. CaddenM
  • 18T. KlidjeF
  • 20R. Molotnikov
  • 27K. MegwaM
  • 30J. MacIntyreM
Coach: David Gray
Malisheva 4-3-3
  • 1I. AvdyliG
  • 55K. ShaniD
  • 5D. KryeziuD
  • 27A. SkovgaardD
  • 2A. VeliuD
  • 6B. FeratiM
  • 10L. XhylaniM
  • 30D. VitijaM
  • 17V. Isgandarli
  • 99D. IbishiF
  • 7K. Uka
Substitutes
  • 25A. KanuricG
  • 3O. BajraktariD
  • 8M. BushajM
  • 9K. Dulaj
  • 14K. LumaM
  • 18V. NafiuM
  • 20A. Pira
  • 33R. MuratiD
Coach: Jusufi Bekim

Form going into Hibernian vs Malisheva

Hibernian

  • L0-2away to Malisheva23 July 2026

Malisheva

  • W2-0Hibernian23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Malisheva

  • 23 July 2026Malisheva 2–0 HibernianUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Hibernian and Malisheva

Hibernian

  • C. Wright2 goals
  • M. Boyle2 goals

Malisheva

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.