Nice
vs
Strasbourg
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Nice 1–2 Strasbourg
The model makes it 31% Nice, 28% draw, 41% Strasbourg — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Nice 1.32, Strasbourg 1.72.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Nice vs Strasbourg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Strasbourg at 41% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nice vs Strasbourg
Nice
- W2-1Lille20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Auxerre12 September 2026
- D1-1Le Mans5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Paris FC30 August 2026
- D0-0Lorient22 August 2026
Strasbourg
- L1-2away to Paris FC19 September 2026
- D1-1Monaco12 September 2026
- W6-2away to Estac Troyes6 September 2026
- W2-1Lens29 August 2026
- L0-4away to Marseille21 August 2026
What these results say
- Nice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Strasbourg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Strasbourg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Strasbourg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nice vs Strasbourg
- 22 April 2026Strasbourg 0–2 NiceCoupe de France
- 4 April 2026Strasbourg 3–1 NiceLigue 1
- 3 January 2026Nice 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 12 April 2025Strasbourg 2–2 NiceLigue 1
- 24 November 2024Nice 2–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 28 April 2024Strasbourg 1–3 NiceLigue 1
Leading scorers: Nice and Strasbourg
Nice
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Strasbourg
- Gessime Yassine2 goals1 assists
- S. Amo-Ameyaw2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nice carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.86 for Strasbourg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Nice and 1.72 for Strasbourg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nice rate 0.67 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Strasbourg rate 1.16 and 1.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Strasbourg the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Nice against 1.72 for Strasbourg. Nice's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/1.17 for Strasbourg.