Nice vs Strasbourg Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Nice 2-1 Strasbourg.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Nice, 26% draw, 44% Strasbourg — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Strasbourg at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nice vs Strasbourg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Y. DioufG
- 5Mohamed AbdelmonemD
- 55Y. NdayishimiyeD
- 35X. Mandza TsiendiD
- 92J. ClaussM
- 39D. CoulibalyM
- 28A. WitselM
- 27N. NkounkouM
- 7G. HeinM
- 9M. AmouraM
- 11E. WahiF
- 77T. BoulhendiG
- 6H. BoudaouiM
- 10S. DiopM
- 38A. CamaraM
- 21I. JanssonF
- 84H. KoutouneD
- 41D. MoranaF
- 87E. PereiraM
- 36A. SeiduD
- 1F. JörgensenG
- 16G. AntwiD
- 4J. MitchellD
- 31Abdoul Karim CoulibalyD
- 36OsoD
- 23Diogo SousaM
- 21P. DiopM
- 14Dário EssugoM
- 7S. Amo-AmeyawF
- 40C. HarderF
- 80Gessime YassineF
- 10G. ReynaM
- 19Fabio Amadu Uri BaldéF
- 43Y. BeckerD
- 35Yaya DiemeF
- 29S. El MourabetM
- 24L. HøgsbergD
- 28Tyrese NoubissieM
- 30J. OrtegaF
- 12M. PiekutowskiG
Form going into Nice vs Strasbourg
Nice
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Lille20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Auxerre12 September 2026
- D1-1Le Mans5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Paris FC30 August 2026
- D0-0Lorient22 August 2026
Strasbourg
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Paris FC19 September 2026
- D1-1Monaco12 September 2026
- W6-2away to Estac Troyes6 September 2026
- W2-1Lens29 August 2026
- L0-4away to Marseille21 August 2026
What these results say
- Nice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Strasbourg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Strasbourg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Strasbourg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nice | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nice vs Strasbourg
- 22 April 2026Strasbourg 0–2 NiceCoupe de France
- 4 April 2026Strasbourg 3–1 NiceLigue 1
- 3 January 2026Nice 1–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
- 12 April 2025Strasbourg 2–2 NiceLigue 1
- 24 November 2024Nice 2–1 StrasbourgLigue 1
Leading scorers: Nice and Strasbourg
Nice
GoalsAssists
- E. Wahi62
Strasbourg
GoalsAssists
- Gessime Yassine43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Nice beat Strasbourg 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Strasbourg at 44% and given a win for Nice 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Dario Essugo 41' for Strasbourg, Pape Demba Diop (own goal) 45+2' for Nice, Jonathan Clauss 81' for Nice. On expected goals it finished 1.34–0.56.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nice a 40.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 32.3% after a win, 42.0% after a draw, 45.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.3%, 8.3 points lower than before the match.
For Strasbourg the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 12.9% going in: 15.5% after a win, 10.8% after a draw, 9.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.9%, 3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Nice v Strasbourg has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 31% / 28% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 30% / 26% / 44%: the biggest move is Strasbourg's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Nice win30%▼ −1
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Strasbourg win44%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.