10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Port Vale vs Grimsby League Two prediction & result

Vale Park, Stoke on Trent
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Port Vale 1-0 Grimsby.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Port Vale, 29% draw, 35% Grimsby — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Port Vale at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Port Vale96%Draw4%Grimsby0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

George Cardinal Joseph·Hall
42'
⚽Kyle Dempseyassist: Jaheim·Headley
45'
45+1'
Finn Cartwright
70'
🔁Finn Cartwrightout: Jamie Walker
70'
🔁Justin Ikechukwu Obiora Amaluzorout: Iwan Morgan
🔁George Cardinal Joseph·Hallout: Rhys Walters
71'
🔁Max Watters out: Oliver Lynch
71'
🔁Onel Hernándezout: Ben Waine
79'
🔁Kyle Dempseyout: George Byers
84'

Match stats — Port Vale vs Grimsby

49%Possession51%
16Shots11
7On target2
8Corners4
3.6xG0.63

Goals against chances

Port Vale1 from 3.60 xGless than the chances were worth
Grimsby0 from 0.63 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Port Vale 3-5-2
  • 20M. MarošiG
  • 25C. HumphreysD
  • 4J. MoonD
  • 5C. HallD
  • 6J. Lawrence-GabrielM
  • 10K. DempseyM
  • 33G. HallM
  • 8B. GarrityM
  • 3J. HeadleyM
  • 11O. HernándezF
  • 36M. WattersF
Substitutes
  • 27M. AsamoahF
  • 7G. ByersM
  • 2K. JohnD
  • 1J. SmithG
  • 19B. WaineF
  • 38R. WaltersM
  • 14O. LynchF
Coach: J. Brady
Grimsby 4-1-4-1
  • 31C. PymG
  • 5H. RodgersD
  • 2M. KacurriD
  • 17C. McJannetD
  • 3J. SweeneyD
  • 15G. TuriM
  • 14J. AmaluzorM
  • 4K. GreenM
  • 28F. CartwrightM
  • 30C. VernamM
  • 39A. CookF
Substitutes
  • 1H. CartwrightG
  • 8Cian DoyleM
  • 10S. FinchF
  • 9Iwan MorganF
  • 26E. PrutiD
  • 7J. WalkerF
  • 11Ryley ReynoldsM
Coach: D. Artell

Form going into Port Vale vs Grimsby

Port Vale

No earlier matches on record this season.

Grimsby

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Shrewsbury3 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Newport County26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Port Vale124351014-415
6Grimsby145542418+620

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Port Vale vs Grimsby

  • 21 April 2025Port Vale 2–2 GrimsbyLeague Two
  • 29 December 2024Grimsby 3–0 Port ValeLeague Two
  • 21 July 2023Port Vale 1–1 GrimsbyFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 May 2021Grimsby 1–0 Port ValeLeague Two
  • 9 January 2021Port Vale 3–0 GrimsbyLeague Two

The result against the call

Port Vale beat Grimsby 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Port Vale at 36%. The goal: Kyle Dempsey 45' for Port Vale. On expected goals it finished 3.60–0.63.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Port Vale a 9.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.6% after a win, 9.9% after a draw, 11.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.6%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

For Grimsby the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 32.1% going in: 37.1% after a win, 30.6% after a draw, 27.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.9%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Port Vale v Grimsby has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 33% / 30% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Port Vale's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Port Vale win36%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Grimsby win35%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.