Bromley
vs
Burton Albion
League One prediction
Our model says: Bromley 1–2 Burton Albion
The model makes it 31% Bromley, 25% draw, 44% Burton Albion — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Bromley 1.40, Burton Albion 1.77.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Burton Albion: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Bromley's rating is built from 13 League One matches and Burton Albion's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.
Key facts
- Bromley are bottom on 9 points from 13 games; Burton Albion are 15th on 17 points from 15 games — League One.
- Bromley have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Wigan.
- Burton Albion have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-6 defeat away to Milton Keynes Dons.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bromley vs Burton Albion
Has the model earned this number?
Burton Albion at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bromley vs Burton Albion
Bromley
League One
- L2-3away to Wigan31 October 2026
- L1-4away to Milton Keynes Dons27 October 2026
- D1-1Peterborough24 October 2026
- L0-4Leicester20 October 2026
- L0-1away to Stockport County17 October 2026
Burton Albion
League One
- L2-6away to Milton Keynes Dons14 November 2026
- L0-2away to Wycombe31 October 2026
- W2-1Leyton Orient24 October 2026
- D0-0Bradford20 October 2026
- D2-2away to Peterborough17 October 2026
What these results say
- Bromley did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bromley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Burton Albion failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burton Albion conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 33 | -20 | 9 |
| 15 | Burton Albion | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bromley
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 93% today
Burton Albion
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 19% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
How the call on Bromley v Burton Albion has moved
First published on 14 Nov at 28% / 26% / 46% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 31% / 25% / 44%: the biggest move is Bromley's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Bromley win31%▲ +3
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Burton Albion win44%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burton Albion the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Bromley against 1.77 for Burton Albion. Bromley's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/2.03 for Burton Albion.
How the model reaches 44% for Burton Albion to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Burton Albion to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Bromley's ratings add 7 points and Burton Albion's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Bromley's ratings38%+7
- Burton Albion's ratings44%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bromley at home · Burton Albion away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Bromley 13, Burton Albion 15.
Burton Albion score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Bromley have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bromley
- at Plymouth1 Dec · League Onewin 15%
- at Doncaster12 Dec · League Onewin 22%
Burton Albion
- vs Wigan1 Dec · League Onewin 43%
- vs Reading12 Dec · League Onewin 31%
- at Blackpool19 Dec · League Onewin 31%
- vs Sheffield Wednesday26 Dec · League Onewin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.