AFC Wimbledon
vs
Barnsley
League One prediction
Our model says: AFC Wimbledon 1–0 Barnsley
The model makes it 36% AFC Wimbledon, 29% draw, 35% Barnsley — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: AFC Wimbledon 1.25, Barnsley 1.22.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: AFC Wimbledon and Barnsley are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. AFC Wimbledon's rating is built from 60 League One matches and Barnsley's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.
Key facts
- AFC Wimbledon are 17th on 16 points from 14 games; Barnsley are 23rd on 9 points from 13 games — League One.
- AFC Wimbledon have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Blackpool.
- Barnsley have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Wigan.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Barnsley 3–3 AFC Wimbledon.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AFC Wimbledon vs Barnsley
Has the model earned this number?
AFC Wimbledon at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AFC Wimbledon vs Barnsley
AFC Wimbledon
League One
- W1-0Blackpool14 November 2026
- L1-2away to Stockport County31 October 2026
- D1-1Wycombe24 October 2026
- L0-3Mansfield Town20 October 2026
- L0-5away to Sheffield Wednesday17 October 2026
Barnsley
League One
- L1-2away to Wigan14 November 2026
- D1-1Oxford United31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Reading24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Luton20 October 2026
- L1-2Cambridge United17 October 2026
What these results say
- AFC Wimbledon failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- AFC Wimbledon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barnsley did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Barnsley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barnsley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 16 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
AFC Wimbledon
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 55% today
Barnsley
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 54% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: AFC Wimbledon vs Barnsley
- 14 February 2026Barnsley 3–3 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 23 August 2025AFC Wimbledon 2–0 BarnsleyLeague One
- 19 January 2019AFC Wimbledon 1–4 BarnsleyLeague One
- 18 August 2018Barnsley 0–0 AFC WimbledonLeague One
Leading scorers: AFC Wimbledon and Barnsley
AFC Wimbledon
GoalsAssists
- J. Stockley61
Barnsley
No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AFC Wimbledon the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon against 1.22 for Barnsley. AFC Wimbledon's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.15 for Barnsley.
How the model reaches 36% for AFC Wimbledon to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AFC Wimbledon to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, AFC Wimbledon's ratings take away 3 points and Barnsley's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- AFC Wimbledon's ratings38%−3
- Barnsley's ratings36%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
AFC Wimbledon at home · Barnsley away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: AFC Wimbledon 14, Barnsley 13.
AFC Wimbledon score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Barnsley have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
AFC Wimbledon
- at Notts County1 Dec · League Onewin 19%
- at Bradford12 Dec · League Onewin 18%
- vs Oxford United19 Dec · League Onewin 19%
Barnsley
- vs Wycombe1 Dec · League Onewin 34%
- at Peterborough12 Dec · League Onewin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.