SV Wehen
vs
Alemannia Aachen
3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: SV Wehen 3-0 Alemannia Aachen.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% SV Wehen, 28% draw, 32% Alemannia Aachen — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: SV Wehen 1.47, Alemannia Aachen 1.28.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More 3. Liga predictions
Model insights: SV Wehen vs Alemannia Aachen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SV Wehen at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SV Wehen vs Alemannia Aachen
Line-ups
- 16F. StritzelG
- 18F. GreilingerD
- 19F. HübnerD
- 15J. JanitzekD
- 5N. MayD
- 37M. BrandtM
- 22R. MassimoM
- 7L. SchleimerM
- 6G. FechnerM
- 32R. PaulaM
- 21M. MüllerF
- 8D. BogićevićM
- 31N. BrdarG
- 20Ayoub ChaikhounM
- 28M. FlothoF
- 29P. HercherD
- 10R. KalemM
- 24T. NeubertD
- 14M. SchultzD
- 45I. Ati AllahM
- 1M. RiemannG
- 37J. da Silva KialaD
- 4D. LeonardD
- 2P. BagalianisD
- 3Matti WagnerD
- 29K. KoscierskiM
- 28D. WiebeM
- 10M. LouneM
- 7L. ScepanikM
- 18Ken IzekorF
- 9D. StarodidF
- 23S. BajićG
- 19N. BitumazalaM
- 20Georg ErmolaevF
- 15M. HanrathsD
- 8L. KösterF
- 38V. SulejmaniF
- 17F. TorsielloF
- 11M. WäschenbachM
- 30Justin-Kai von der HitzD
Form going into SV Wehen vs Alemannia Aachen
SV Wehen
- W4-2away to FC Ingolstadt 0411 October 2026
- L1-4MSV Duisburg20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Fortuna Köln16 September 2026
- L0-1Waldhof Mannheim13 September 2026
Alemannia Aachen
- L2-5FC Viktoria Köln11 October 2026
- W1-0Fortuna Düsseldorf19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Würzburger Kickers15 September 2026
- D2-2SSV Jahn Regensburg12 September 2026
What these results say
- SV Wehen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- SV Wehen conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Alemannia Aachen failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Alemannia Aachen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Alemannia Aachen conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | SV Wehen | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Alemannia Aachen | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SV Wehen vs Alemannia Aachen
- 5 April 2026Alemannia Aachen 3–0 SV Wehen3. Liga
- 24 October 2025SV Wehen 1–2 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
- 17 May 2025SV Wehen 2–1 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
- 21 December 2024Alemannia Aachen 0–0 SV Wehen3. Liga
- 19 April 2013SV Wehen 3–2 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
- 27 October 2012Alemannia Aachen 1–1 SV Wehen3. Liga
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.47 goals for SV Wehen and 1.28 for Alemannia Aachen; the game produced 3 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Lukas Schleimer 45' (SV Wehen), Gino Fechner 51' (SV Wehen), Roberto Massimo 77' (SV Wehen).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SV Wehen the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for SV Wehen against 1.28 for Alemannia Aachen. SV Wehen's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.84 for Alemannia Aachen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.