Kashiwa Reysol
vs
Port FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction
Our model says: Kashiwa Reysol 2–0 Port FC
The model makes it 65% Kashiwa Reysol, 21% draw, 14% Port FC — fair odds of 1.54, 4.76 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Kashiwa Reysol 2.99, Port FC 0.86.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kashiwa Reysol are 10th on 0 points from 1 game; Port FC are 11th on 0 points from 1 game — AFC Champions League Elite, East Region.
- Kashiwa Reysol have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Kyoto Sanga.
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kashiwa Reysol vs Port FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kashiwa Reysol at 65% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kashiwa Reysol vs Port FC
Kashiwa Reysol
- L1-2away to Jeonbuk Motors16 September 2026
Port FC
- L1-2Vissel Kobe16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kashiwa Reysol | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Port FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Kashiwa Reysol carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.16 for Port FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.99 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 0.86 for Port FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kashiwa Reysol rate 0.77 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Port FC rate 0.53 and 2.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kashiwa Reysol the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.99 expected goals for Kashiwa Reysol against 0.86 for Port FC. Kashiwa Reysol's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.12 for Port FC.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kashiwa Reysol
- at Ratchaburi27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%
- vs Daejeon Citizen3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 46%
- at Newcastle Jets24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
- vs Công An Nhân Dân1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 57%
- vs Buriram United10 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 55%
Port FC
- at Johor Darul Takzim FC27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 16%
- vs Beijing Guoan3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 33%
- at Gamba Osaka25 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 15%
- vs Kashima2 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 23%
- at SHANGHAI SIPG9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.