Regular Season - 9 · 14 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg 3. Liga prediction & result

Stadion an der Poststraße, Verl
Referee: Jonah Samuel Njie Besong
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Verl 2-2 SSV Jahn Regensburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Verl, 25% draw, 27% SSV Jahn Regensburg — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Verl 1.85, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.24.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg

60%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%2-1 10%1-0 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Verl at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Verl5%Draw91%SSV Jahn Regensburg4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
⚽Lucas Hermesassist: David Lennart Philipp
43'
⚽Oscar Schoenfelderassist: Nassim Boujellab
Andre Leipold
53'
🔁Mika Clausenout: Kasim Rabihic
56'
🔁Joshua Ezeout: Fabian Wessig
56'
61'
🔁David Lennart Philippout: Marco Womer
⚽Dennis Waidnerassist: Tim Heike
65'
68'
Sascha Hingerl
71'
🔁Sascha Hingerlout: Zeteny Jano
🔁Janne Bernerout: Emmanuel Bamba
71'
71'
🔁Lucas Hermesout: Jakob Seibold
⚽Dennis Waidnerassist: Andre Leipold
73'
🔁Dennis Waidnerout: Yari Otto
87'
87'
🔁Nassim Boujellabout: John Xaver Posselt
🔁Andre Leipoldout: Alem Japaur
88'

Match stats — Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg

70%Possession30%
8Shots8
4On target3
8Corners3

Line-ups

Verl 4-3-3
  • 1T. SchlieckG
  • 34Janne BernerD
  • 22N. KönigD
  • 5Nick SeidelD
  • 19N. KijewskiD
  • 30A. MešanovićM
  • 6J. EzeM
  • 8D. WaidnerM
  • 20A. LeipoldF
  • 21M. ClausenF
  • 25T. HeikeF
Substitutes
  • 29Emmanuel BambaM
  • 9A. JapaurF
  • 26A. FótiM
  • 11M. KaubeM
  • 14P. LehmannD
  • 17Y. OttoM
  • 32F. PekruhlG
  • 23K. RabihićF
  • 18F. WessigM
Coach: Orest Shala
SSV Jahn Regensburg 3-4-3
  • 1H. HermannG
  • 37Leopold WurmD
  • 5L. MühlD
  • 31L. MätzlerD
  • 25N. OliveiraM
  • 35S. HingerlM
  • 29A. FeinM
  • 7O. SchönfelderM
  • 8D. PhilippF
  • 27L. HermesF
  • 10N. BoujellabF
Substitutes
  • 26B. BauerD
  • 34P. HobschF
  • 21Z. JánóM
  • 44M. KarbsteinD
  • 13E. MajetschakM
  • 20J. PosseltF
  • 23M. SchmittG
  • 40J. SeiboldM
  • 11M. WörnerF
Coach: S. Hildmann

Form going into Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg

Verl

  • D2-2away to Fortuna Düsseldorf11 October 2026
  • W2-1Würzburger Kickers18 September 2026
  • D1-1away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach15 September 2026
  • W2-1SV Meppen12 September 2026

SSV Jahn Regensburg

  • W5-0Havelse10 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Stuttgart II19 September 2026
  • L1-2Fortuna Düsseldorf15 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Alemannia Aachen12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Verl went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Verl scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Verl conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • SSV Jahn Regensburg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for SSV Jahn Regensburg had three goals or more.
  • SSV Jahn Regensburg failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Verl93331417-312
17SSV Jahn Regensburg92342019+19

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Verl vs SSV Jahn Regensburg

  • 3 March 2026Verl 1–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg3. Liga
  • 28 September 2025SSV Jahn Regensburg 2–0 Verl3. Liga
  • 20 January 2024Jahn Regensburg 1–1 Verl3. Liga
  • 20 August 2023Verl 1–2 Jahn Regensburg3. Liga

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.85 goals for Verl and 1.24 for SSV Jahn Regensburg; the game produced 2 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Lucas Hermes 38' (SSV Jahn Regensburg), Oscar Schoenfelder 43' (SSV Jahn Regensburg), Dennis Waidner 65' (Verl), Dennis Waidner 73' (Verl).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Verl the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Verl against 1.24 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Verl's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.93 for SSV Jahn Regensburg.