Preußen Münster
vs
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: Preußen Münster 1-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Preußen Münster, 28% draw, 30% Fortuna Düsseldorf — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Preußen Münster 1.47, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.15.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More 3. Liga predictions
Model insights: Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Preußen Münster at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
Line-ups
- 1M. BehrensG
- 16T. PaetowD
- 5L. ZellerD
- 4A. TikvićD
- 43R. RöschM
- 44Samuel Moïse AlthausM
- 21R. PreißingerM
- 36N. VarelmannM
- 28Montell NdikomF
- 33F. HiglF
- 14C. MakridisF
- 29Leon TasovF
- 6Wesley AdehM
- 19M. DemirhanM
- 38M. HarsmanG
- 2L. KolbeD
- 27J. KorteM
- 8J. MeesF
- 30M. SchulzM
- 17M. StuhlmacherM
- 22L. LordG
- 25M. ZimmermannD
- 15T. OberdorfD
- 44E .EgouliD
- 7E. WekesserD
- 6A. MüllerM
- 38E. ArdenM
- 8J. HendrixM
- 24F. SchleusenerF
- 10P. FörsterF
- 34A. SlimaniF
- 2S. van der SlootD
- 28S. RischD
- 1L. RießG
- 27J. PaulinaF
- 9E. HottmannF
- 14J. ConsbruchM
- 5Y. BouchamaM
- 4L. BornscheinD
- 16M. BengerM
Form going into Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
Preußen Münster
- D3-3Rot-Weiß Essen9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Waldhof Mannheim20 September 2026
- D3-3FC Saarbrücken16 September 2026
- W2-1away to Stuttgart II13 September 2026
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- D2-2Verl11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Alemannia Aachen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to SSV Jahn Regensburg15 September 2026
- W2-1MSV Duisburg12 September 2026
What these results say
- Preußen Münster conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Preußen Münster failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Preußen Münster scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Fortuna Düsseldorf had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Preußen Münster | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 12 |
| 6 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Preußen Münster vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 13 February 2026Fortuna Düsseldorf 0–0 Preußen Münster2. Bundesliga
- 14 September 2025Preußen Münster 1–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga
- 5 April 2025Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–0 Preußen Münster2. Bundesliga
- 1 November 2024Preußen Münster 1–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.47 goals for Preußen Münster and 1.15 for Fortuna Düsseldorf; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Felix Higl 53' (Preußen Münster), Andreas Müller 65' (Fortuna Düsseldorf), Eric Hottmann 90' (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Preußen Münster the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Preußen Münster against 1.15 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Preußen Münster's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.53 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.