Waldhof Mannheim
vs
FC Ingolstadt 04
3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: Waldhof Mannheim 0-3 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Waldhof Mannheim, 27% draw, 31% FC Ingolstadt 04 — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Waldhof Mannheim 1.56, FC Ingolstadt 04 1.26.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More 3. Liga predictions
Model insights: Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Waldhof Mannheim at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04
Line-ups
- 1T. NijhuisG
- 24L. KlünterD
- 15C. KammerknechtD
- 14Oluwaseun God Power Osaro OgbemudiaD
- 17Owono Darnell KeumoD
- 7L. BierschenkM
- 8M. ThalhammerM
- 21J. RieckmannM
- 12V. ThillF
- 10J. UlbrichtF
- 23L. MickelsF
- 13T. BoydF
- 11Francisco Fumaça de Mascarenhas da Costa PessoaF
- 28D. MichelM
- 29N. X. Muteba NTumbaF
- 16J. NiemannG
- 25Jid OkekeD
- 3Moritz PolteD
- 37N. Sarenren BazeeF
- 9Gonçalo GregórioF
- 47D. KleinG
- 14Max PlathD
- 6G. AntzoulasD
- 15J. ScholzD
- 19L. RosenlöcherD
- 10D. KayginM
- 18K. BennettsM
- 34L. FrödeM
- 37B. KanurićM
- 28N. VelupillayM
- 13L. LokotschF
- 8F. CarlsenM
- 4Elias DeckerD
- 20Y. DeichmannD
- 5Emre GülM
- 1M. PonathG
- 7Seo Jong-MinF
- 17O. UgonduF
- 41V. ŠapinaM
Form going into Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04
Waldhof Mannheim
- W5-1away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach10 October 2026
- W2-0Preußen Münster20 September 2026
- L1-2Rot-Weiß Essen16 September 2026
- W1-0away to SV Wehen13 September 2026
FC Ingolstadt 04
- L2-4SV Wehen11 October 2026
- L0-3away to FC Viktoria Köln19 September 2026
- L1-2Hoffenheim II16 September 2026
- W1-0away to FC Saarbrücken12 September 2026
What these results say
- Waldhof Mannheim scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Waldhof Mannheim won 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Ingolstadt 04 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Ingolstadt 04 scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Ingolstadt 04 conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Waldhof Mannheim | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 13 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04
- 16 May 2026FC Ingolstadt 04 5–1 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
- 20 December 2025Waldhof Mannheim 2–2 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 19 January 2025Waldhof Mannheim 0–0 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 4 August 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 2–1 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
- 5 May 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 1–1 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
- 2 December 2023Waldhof Mannheim 1–1 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
Leading scorers: Waldhof Mannheim and FC Ingolstadt 04
Waldhof Mannheim
GoalsAssists
- V. Thill10
FC Ingolstadt 04
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.56 goals for Waldhof Mannheim and 1.26 for FC Ingolstadt 04; the game produced 0 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Lars Lokotsch 59' (FC Ingolstadt 04), Max Plath 64' (FC Ingolstadt 04), Obed Chidindu Ugondu 88' (FC Ingolstadt 04).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Waldhof Mannheim the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Waldhof Mannheim against 1.26 for FC Ingolstadt 04. Waldhof Mannheim's attack/defence rating is 0.53/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.81 for FC Ingolstadt 04.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.