Antalyaspor
vs
Kayserispor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Antalyaspor 1–0 Kayserispor
The model makes it 43% Antalyaspor, 29% draw, 28% Kayserispor — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Antalyaspor 1.56, Kayserispor 1.06.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Antalyaspor are 8th on 12 points from 8 games; Kayserispor are top on 19 points from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Antalyaspor have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Vanspor FK.
- Kayserispor are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-0 win away to Mardin 1969.
- Last 6 meetings: Kayserispor 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Kayserispor 1–0 Antalyaspor.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Antalyaspor at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor
Antalyaspor
- W3-0Vanspor FK20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Ümraniyespor12 September 2026
- L1-2Sivasspor6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bandırmaspor1 September 2026
- L1-2Sarıyer28 August 2026
Kayserispor
- W1-0away to Mardin 196920 September 2026
- W4-0İstanbulspor14 September 2026
- W3-0away to Esenler Erokspor7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fatih Karagümrük2 September 2026
- L1-2Bursaspor29 August 2026
What these results say
- Antalyaspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Antalyaspor had three goals or more.
- Kayserispor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 1 | Kayserispor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor
- 22 February 2026Kayserispor 1–0 AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 20 September 2025Antalyaspor 1–1 KayserisporSüper Lig
- 12 May 2025Kayserispor 3–1 AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 15 December 2024Antalyaspor 2–0 KayserisporSüper Lig
- 29 January 2024Kayserispor 1–1 AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 2 September 2023Antalyaspor 1–1 KayserisporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Antalyaspor and Kayserispor
Antalyaspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Kayserispor
- T. Seferi7 goals
- D. Moreno5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Antalyaspor carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.45 for Kayserispor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Antalyaspor and 1.06 for Kayserispor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Antalyaspor rate 0.67 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kayserispor rate 0.64 and 1.43.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kayserispor, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Antalyaspor a 5.3% chance of the title and Kayserispor 14%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Antalyaspor the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Antalyaspor against 1.06 for Kayserispor. Antalyaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.43 for Kayserispor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Antalyaspor at home · Kayserispor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Antalyaspor 8, Kayserispor 8.
Kayserispor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Antalyaspor have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Antalyaspor
- at İstanbulspor18 Oct · 1. Ligwin 41%
- vs Bodrum FK25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 40%
- at Iğdır FK1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 33%
- vs Bursaspor6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
Kayserispor
- vs Batman Petrolspor18 Oct · 1. Ligwin 46%
- at Pendikspor25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 34%
- vs Muğlaspor2 Nov · 1. Ligwin 44%
- at Ümraniyespor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.