Regular Season - 9 · 14 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3. Liga prediction & result

Sportpark Höhenberg, Cologne
Referee: Cengiz Kabalakli
Full time2 – 2

Final score: FC Viktoria Köln 2-2 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.

Before kick-off the model made it 63% FC Viktoria Köln, 22% draw, 15% SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: FC Viktoria Köln 2.18, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0.82.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

More 3. Liga predictions

All 3. Liga predictions →

Model insights: FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

50%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 12%1-0 10%2-1 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Viktoria Köln at 63% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Viktoria Köln6%Draw92%SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Niklas Horst Castelleassist: Pascal Fallmann
5'
⚽Lucas Wolfassist: Niklas Horst Castelle
11'
27'
Volkan Çeliktaş
38'
lukas stoppel
50'
christian mistl
60'
🔁lukas stoppelout: Tim Rossmann
60'
🔁christian mistlout: Fabian Eisele
Pascal Fallmann
61'
🔁Pascal Fallmannout: Marco Pledl
69'
🔁Lucas Wolfout: Taylan Duman
69'
🔁Niklas Horst Castelleout: Jason aman
69'
70'
⚽Fabian Eisele
🔁Niklas Swiderout: Jakob Sachse
80'
🔁David Ottoout: Noah Maboulou
80'
86'
⚽Fabian Eisele (pen)
88'
⚽loris maierassist: Fabian Eisele
90'

Match stats — FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

48%Possession52%
18Shots13
6On target6
7Corners2

Line-ups

FC Viktoria Köln 4-4-2
  • 1A. SchulzG
  • 19M. SponselD
  • 6T. EisenhuthM
  • 18Tim KlossD
  • 26Killian JakobD
  • 28P. FallmannD
  • 16Niklas JahnM
  • 20Niklas SwiderM
  • 21L. WolfM
  • 10D. OttoF
  • 44N. CastelleF
Substitutes
  • 12D. WyciokG
  • 8T. DumanM
  • 39F. AlbersD
  • 37N. Le BretF
  • 17M. PledlM
  • 9J. SachseF
  • 11Babacar eric gueyeM
  • 22verthomy boboyM
  • 24Jason amanD
Coach: M. Wilhelm
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 4-4-2
  • 1M. ReuleG
  • 8elias jan rahnD
  • 15A. AidonisD
  • 5Volkan ÇeliktaşM
  • 25arbnor nurajD
  • 21luca molinariM
  • 27loris maierM
  • 10L. StoppelM
  • 16marius kundeF
  • 18niklas pollexM
  • 6christian mistlM
Substitutes
  • 13N. ZografakisF
  • 11T. RossmannF
  • 4F. BleicherM
  • 19marius uhlD
  • 37leon schurerM
  • 33tim schulzG
  • 20leon maierM
  • 36Mark GashiD
  • 23F. EiseleF
Coach: Pascal Reinhardt

Form going into FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

FC Viktoria Köln

  • W5-2away to Alemannia Aachen11 October 2026
  • W3-0FC Ingolstadt 0419 September 2026
  • W3-1away to SV Meppen15 September 2026
  • W4-0Hansa Rostock11 September 2026

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

  • L1-5Waldhof Mannheim10 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Saarbrücken19 September 2026
  • D1-1Verl15 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Havelse12 September 2026

What these results say

  • FC Viktoria Köln won every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Viktoria Köln scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for FC Viktoria Köln had three goals or more.
  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2FC Viktoria Köln96122613+1319
18SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach9234916-79

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Viktoria Köln vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

  • 21 February 2020FC Viktoria Köln 1–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
  • 24 August 2019SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–3 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.18 goals for FC Viktoria Köln and 0.82 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach; the game produced 2 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Niklas Horst Castelle 5' (FC Viktoria Köln), Lucas Wolf 11' (FC Viktoria Köln), Fabian Eisele 70' (SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach), loris maier 88' (SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Viktoria Köln the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for FC Viktoria Köln against 0.82 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach. FC Viktoria Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/2.09 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.