SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 Energie Cottbus.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% SV Darmstadt 98, 23% draw, 42% Energie Cottbus — fair odds of 2.86, 4.35 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Energie Cottbus at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. SchuhenG
- 25W. MikelbrencisD
- 6P. PfeifferD
- 20A. VukotićD
- 18R. PetrettaD
- 5M. RichterM
- 17K. KlefischM
- 10N. VerkooijenM
- 7N. WeißhauptM
- 9Lee Ho-JaeF
- 36M. SmitF
- 16H. AkiyamaM
- 30A. BrunstG
- 41L. DuijvestijnM
- 11I. El KadiriF
- 44Y. FurukawaF
- 22L. KehlM
- 3F. KleinhanslD
- 19F. LakenmacherF
- 49Y. LührsD
- 1M. LotkaG
- 3H. RorigD
- 2K. ManuD
- 21Luca ErleinD
- 20A. BorgmannD
- 32L. BittencourtM
- 8Lukas MichelbrinkM
- 11M. HannemannM
- 10T. CiğerciM
- 7C. KinsombiM
- 31J. ButlerF
- 16R. MaloneD
- 5D. PelivanM
- 6J. HofmannM
- 23Fousseny DoumbiaD
- 9L. CopadoF
- 4T. CampulkaD
- 13Dmytro BohdanovF
- 19J. BoziarisM
- 29K. KratzschG
Form going into SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus
SV Darmstadt 98
All competitions we cover
- L1-5away to VfL Wolfsburg18 September 2026
- W2-1Arminia Bielefeld11 September 2026
- L0-3away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern5 September 2026
- L0-1Hannover 9630 August 2026
- L0-1away to Dynamo Dresden16 August 2026
Energie Cottbus
All competitions we cover
- D1-1FC St. Pauli20 September 2026
- W3-0away to Karlsruher SC13 September 2026
- D4-4away to VfL Wolfsburg5 September 2026
- L3-4SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Arminia Bielefeld16 August 2026
What these results say
- SV Darmstadt 98 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SV Darmstadt 98 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 9 |
| 12 | Energie Cottbus | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: SV Darmstadt 98 and Energie Cottbus
SV Darmstadt 98
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Energie Cottbus
GoalsAssists
- T. Ciğerci52
- J. Butler51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Energie Cottbus 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Energie Cottbus at 42% and given a win for SV Darmstadt 98 35%. The goals: Justin Butler 4' for Energie Cottbus, Noah Weisshaupt 36' for SV Darmstadt 98, Aleksandar Vukotić 77' for SV Darmstadt 98, Yannik Luhrs 88' for SV Darmstadt 98. On expected goals it finished 1.42–1.49.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave SV Darmstadt 98 a 42.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 35.8% after a win, 43.7% after a draw, 47.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.8%, 6.5 points lower than before the match.
For Energie Cottbus the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.7% going in: 19.8% after a win, 15.0% after a draw, 13.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.1%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on SV Darmstadt 98 v Energie Cottbus has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 34% / 26% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 23% / 42%: the biggest move is the draw, down 3 points.
- SV Darmstadt 98 win35%▲ +1
- Draw23%▼ −3
- Energie Cottbus win42%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.