SV Darmstadt 98
vs
Energie Cottbus
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SV Darmstadt 98 1–2 Energie Cottbus
The model makes it 34% SV Darmstadt 98, 26% draw, 40% Energie Cottbus — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: SV Darmstadt 98 1.79, Energie Cottbus 2.05.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Energie Cottbus at 40% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus
SV Darmstadt 98
- L1-5away to VfL Wolfsburg18 September 2026
- W2-1Arminia Bielefeld11 September 2026
- L0-3away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern5 September 2026
- L0-1Hannover 9630 August 2026
- L0-1away to Dynamo Dresden16 August 2026
Energie Cottbus
- D1-1FC St. Pauli20 September 2026
- W3-0away to Karlsruher SC13 September 2026
- D4-4away to VfL Wolfsburg5 September 2026
- L3-4SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Arminia Bielefeld16 August 2026
What these results say
- SV Darmstadt 98 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SV Darmstadt 98 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: SV Darmstadt 98 and Energie Cottbus
SV Darmstadt 98
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Energie Cottbus
- T. Ciğerci4 goals1 assists
- J. Butler3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SV Darmstadt 98 carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.56 for Energie Cottbus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 2.05 for Energie Cottbus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SV Darmstadt 98 rate 0.62 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Energie Cottbus rate 0.90 and 1.68.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 0% chance of the title and Energie Cottbus 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Energie Cottbus the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 against 2.05 for Energie Cottbus. SV Darmstadt 98's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.68 for Energie Cottbus.