Casa Pia
vs
Santa Clara
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara
The model makes it 24% Casa Pia, 31% draw, 45% Santa Clara — fair odds of 4.17, 3.23 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Casa Pia 0.75, Santa Clara 1.44.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santa Clara at 45% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
Casa Pia
- W2-1away to Estoril20 September 2026
- L1-4FC Porto12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Vitória SC6 September 2026
- L0-1Moreirense30 August 2026
- L0-2away to GIL Vicente24 August 2026
Santa Clara
- D0-0SC Braga20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Arouca13 September 2026
- W4-0Rio Ave6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Alverca29 August 2026
- W1-0Famalicao23 August 2026
What these results say
- Casa Pia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Casa Pia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santa Clara went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Santa Clara scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
- 18 April 2026Casa Pia 0–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 6 December 2025Santa Clara 1–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 1 February 2025Santa Clara 2–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 24 August 2024Casa Pia 0–2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 29 January 2023Casa Pia 2–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
- 7 August 2022Santa Clara 0–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Casa Pia and Santa Clara
Casa Pia
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Santa Clara
- Gonçalo Paciência5 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Casa Pia carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.85 for Santa Clara. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.75 goals for Casa Pia and 1.44 for Santa Clara. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Casa Pia rate 0.57 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santa Clara rate 0.85 and 0.87.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Casa Pia a 0% chance of the title and Santa Clara 1.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Clara the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Casa Pia against 1.44 for Santa Clara. Casa Pia's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/0.87 for Santa Clara.