10 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Primeira Liga prediction & result

Rio Maior
Referee: Vasilica Iancu, Portugal
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Casa Pia 0-1 Santa Clara.

Before kick-off the model made it 22% Casa Pia, 29% draw, 49% Santa Clara — fair odds of 4.55, 3.45 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Santa Clara at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Casa Pia2%Draw93%Santa Clara5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
José Tavares
•David Sousa
50'
David Sousa
52'
🔁Henrique Araújoout: Felipe Silva
54'
57'
🔁José Tavaresout: Joao Vasconcelos
Henrique Araújo
67'
68'
Emanuel Moreira
70'
🔁Tiago Ribeiroout: Luis Fernando Santos Oliveira
70'
🔁Vinicius lopesout: Vitor Hugo Amorim de Assis
🔁Lawrence Oforiout: Márcio Gabriel Ferreira Pereira
72'
🔁Pedro Rosasout: João Goulart
73'
77'
🔁Emanuel Moreiraout: Henrique Silva
77'
🔁Brenner Lucas Goncalves Santosout: Léo Jacó
🔁Mohamed Salah El Boukammiriout: Aymen Zouin
79'
🔁Benjamin Pauwelsout: Evans Maurin
80'
Márcio Gabriel Ferreira Pereira
83'
90+2'
⚽Joao Vasconcelosassist: Lucas Soares
90+3'
Joao Vasconcelos
Andre Geraldes
90+5'
90+7'
Pedro Ferreira
90+7'
Gonçalo Paciência

Match stats — Casa Pia vs Santa Clara

38%Possession62%
5Shots14
2On target2
3Corners7
0.51xG0.67

Goals against chances

Casa Pia0 from 0.51 xGless than the chances were worth
Santa Clara1 from 0.67 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Casa Pia 4-2-3-1
  • 95Ivan MandićG
  • 18GeraldesD
  • 3KalyD
  • 43David SousaD
  • 75Pedro RosasD
  • 16SilviM
  • 80L. OforiM
  • 11M. El BoukammiriM
  • 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
  • 77B. PauwelsM
  • 9Henrique AraújoF
Substitutes
  • 90CassianoF
  • 21A. ZouinF
  • 44Felipe SilvaD
  • 8Gabi PereiraM
  • 4João GoulartD
  • 20A. JattaF
  • 98JPM
  • 17E. MaurinF
  • 24S. PérezM
Coach: Filipe Coelho
Santa Clara 4-3-3
  • 1Lucas FrançaG
  • 42Lucas SoaresD
  • 4Pedro PachecoD
  • 21Emanuel FernandesD
  • 5Guilherme RomãoD
  • 8José Luís Rocha TavaresM
  • 6Pedro FerreiraM
  • 20Tiago RibeiroM
  • 70Vinícius LopesF
  • 9Gonçalo PaciênciaF
  • 10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves SantosF
Substitutes
  • 19YthalloD
  • 11Welinton TorrãoF
  • 22VitinhoM
  • 17João VasconcelosM
  • 99SorrisoF
  • 3Henrique SilvaD
  • 12NenecaG
  • 73Léo JacóF
  • 7Luis Fernando Santos OliveiraF
Coach: Petit

Form going into Casa Pia vs Santa Clara

Casa Pia

Primeira Liga

  • W2-1away to Estoril20 September 2026

Santa Clara

Primeira Liga

  • D0-0SC Braga20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Casa Pia11227620-148
4Santa Clara11632168+821

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara

  • 18 April 2026Casa Pia 0–0 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
  • 6 December 2025Santa Clara 1–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 1 February 2025Santa Clara 2–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 24 August 2024Casa Pia 0–2 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
  • 29 January 2023Casa Pia 2–1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga

The full Casa Pia vs Santa Clara record →

Leading scorers: Casa Pia and Santa Clara

Casa Pia

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Santa Clara

GoalsAssists

  • Gonçalo Paciência51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Santa Clara won 1–0 at Casa Pia. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Santa Clara at 49%. The goal: Joao Vasconcelos 90+2' for Santa Clara. Sent off: David Sousa (Casa Pia) 52'. On expected goals it finished 0.51–0.67.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Casa Pia a 71.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 60.3% after a win, 70.7% after a draw, 75.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.2%, 4.2 points higher than before the match.

For Santa Clara the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 27.3% going in: 30.5% after a win, 24.4% after a draw, 21.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.5%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Casa Pia v Santa Clara has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 24% / 31% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 22% / 29% / 49%: the biggest move is Santa Clara's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Casa Pia win22%▼ −2
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Santa Clara win49%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.