1. FC Magdeburg
vs
Hannover 96
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: 1. FC Magdeburg 2–1 Hannover 96
The model makes it 39% 1. FC Magdeburg, 28% draw, 33% Hannover 96 — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.71, Hannover 96 1.44.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Magdeburg at 39% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96
1. FC Magdeburg
- D1-1away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth18 September 2026
- W3-01. FC Kaiserslautern12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hertha BSC6 September 2026
- W2-0Holstein Kiel30 August 2026
- W3-0away to VfL Osnabrück15 August 2026
Hannover 96
- W2-1VfL Bochum20 September 2026
- L1-2away to 1. FC Nürnberg11 September 2026
- D2-2Karlsruher SC4 September 2026
- W1-0away to SV Darmstadt 9830 August 2026
- L0-1VfL Wolfsburg16 August 2026
What these results say
- 1. FC Magdeburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hannover 96 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hannover 96 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Hannover 96 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96
- 30 January 20261. FC Magdeburg 1–2 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
- 23 August 2025Hannover 96 3–1 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
- 29 March 2025Hannover 96 0–0 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
- 10 January 2025Hannover 96 0–3 1. FC MagdeburgFriendlies Clubs
- 14 November 2024Hannover 96 2–2 1. FC MagdeburgFriendlies Clubs
- 27 October 20241. FC Magdeburg 0–3 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96
1. FC Magdeburg
- E. Iyoha4 goals
- A. Nollenberger3 goals1 assists
Hannover 96
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Magdeburg carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.55 for Hannover 96. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.44 for Hannover 96. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Magdeburg rate 0.77 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hannover 96 rate 0.70 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 20.8% chance of the title and Hannover 96 0.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Magdeburg the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.44 for Hannover 96. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.29 for Hannover 96.