VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfL Bochum 0-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% VfL Bochum, 27% draw, 31% Arminia Bielefeld — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
VfL Bochum at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. HornG
- 2S. KlaiberD
- 15M. SteinwenderD
- 5K. MetsD
- 32M. WittekD
- 34T. MeyerM
- 24M. PannewigM
- 7C. RasmussenM
- 23K. MiyoshiM
- 17G. HoltmannM
- 33P. HofmannF
- 16T. CasaliG
- 37Alessandro CrimaldiF
- 19D. HanslikF
- 39L. IsbruchM
- 4Y. KarademirD
- 29M. Ouro-TagbaF
- 28C. PatinoM
- 31L. SawasD
- 10B. TazM
- 1J. KerskenG
- 2F. HagmannD
- 19M. GroßerD
- 5M. BauerD
- 3J. FelixD
- 17A. SickerD
- 30I. YoungM
- 21S. RussoM
- 31L. JensenM
- 38M. WörlM
- 11J. GrodowskiF
- 7H. KoudossouD
- 6M. MehlemM
- 9D. MinF
- 18L. OppermannG
- 10J. RocheltM
- 23L. SchneiderD
- 8S. SchreckM
- 29T. HandwerkerD
- 27Benjamin Bediako BoakyeF
Form going into VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Hannover 9620 September 2026
- D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden5 September 2026
- L0-1VfL Osnabrück28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Eintracht Braunschweig14 August 2026
Arminia Bielefeld
All competitions we cover
- D2-21. FC Heidenheim20 September 2026
- L1-2away to SV Darmstadt 9811 September 2026
- D2-2FC St. Pauli4 September 2026
- L1-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg29 August 2026
- W3-0Energie Cottbus16 August 2026
What these results say
- VfL Bochum scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Bochum conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Arminia Bielefeld had three goals or more.
- Arminia Bielefeld failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 14 |
| 6 | Arminia Bielefeld | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld
- 2 May 2026Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 6 December 2025VfL Bochum 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 12 August 2023Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 VfL BochumDFB Pokal
- 6 May 2022VfL Bochum 2–1 Arminia BielefeldBundesliga
- 14 December 2021Arminia Bielefeld 2–0 VfL BochumBundesliga
Leading scorers: VfL Bochum and Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
GoalsAssists
- P. Hofmann50
Arminia Bielefeld
GoalsAssists
- J. Grodowski72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arminia Bielefeld won 1–0 at VfL Bochum. The model had leaned towards a win for VfL Bochum at 42% and given a win for Arminia Bielefeld 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Benjamin boakye 78' for Arminia Bielefeld. On expected goals it finished 0.53–1.52.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave VfL Bochum a 13.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 10.2% after a win, 14.2% after a draw, 17.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.3%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.
For Arminia Bielefeld the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 23.6% going in: 17.9% after a win, 24.8% after a draw, 26.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.9%, 5.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on VfL Bochum v Arminia Bielefeld has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is VfL Bochum's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- VfL Bochum win42%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Arminia Bielefeld win31%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.