VfL Bochum
vs
Arminia Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: VfL Bochum 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld
The model makes it 40% VfL Bochum, 29% draw, 31% Arminia Bielefeld — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: VfL Bochum 1.57, Arminia Bielefeld 1.25.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfL Bochum at 40% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
- L1-2away to Hannover 9620 September 2026
- D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden5 September 2026
- L0-1VfL Osnabrück28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Eintracht Braunschweig14 August 2026
Arminia Bielefeld
- D2-21. FC Heidenheim20 September 2026
- L1-2away to SV Darmstadt 9811 September 2026
- D2-2FC St. Pauli4 September 2026
- L1-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg29 August 2026
- W3-0Energie Cottbus16 August 2026
What these results say
- VfL Bochum scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Bochum conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Arminia Bielefeld had three goals or more.
- Arminia Bielefeld failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | VfL Bochum | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld
- 2 May 2026Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 6 December 2025VfL Bochum 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 12 August 2023Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 Vfl BochumDFB Pokal
- 6 May 2022Vfl Bochum 2–1 Arminia BielefeldBundesliga
- 14 December 2021Arminia Bielefeld 2–0 Vfl BochumBundesliga
- 28 January 2020Arminia Bielefeld 2–0 Vfl Bochum2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: VfL Bochum and Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Arminia Bielefeld
- J. Grodowski5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
VfL Bochum carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.47 for Arminia Bielefeld. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for VfL Bochum and 1.25 for Arminia Bielefeld. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfL Bochum rate 0.59 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arminia Bielefeld rate 0.72 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VfL Bochum a 0.1% chance of the title and Arminia Bielefeld 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfL Bochum the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for VfL Bochum against 1.25 for Arminia Bielefeld. VfL Bochum's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.54 for Arminia Bielefeld.