VfL Osnabrück
vs
Dynamo Dresden
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: VfL Osnabrück 2–1 Dynamo Dresden
The model makes it 39% VfL Osnabrück, 27% draw, 34% Dynamo Dresden — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: VfL Osnabrück 1.84, Dynamo Dresden 1.60.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfL Osnabrück at 39% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden
VfL Osnabrück
- D1-1away to Holstein Kiel19 September 2026
- L1-3Hertha BSC13 September 2026
- W3-1Eintracht Braunschweig6 September 2026
- W1-0away to VfL Bochum28 August 2026
- L0-31. FC Magdeburg15 August 2026
Dynamo Dresden
- L1-2Hertha BSC19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Eintracht Braunschweig12 September 2026
- L1-2VfL Bochum5 September 2026
- L3-5away to 1. FC Heidenheim29 August 2026
- W1-0SV Darmstadt 9816 August 2026
What these results say
- VfL Osnabrück scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Osnabrück conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden
- 12 April 2025Dynamo Dresden 0–1 VfL Osnabrück3. Liga
- 9 November 2024VfL Osnabrück 0–3 Dynamo Dresden3. Liga
- 2 April 2023VfL Osnabruck 0–1 Dynamo Dresden3. Liga
- 9 October 2022Dynamo Dresden 3–2 VfL Osnabruck3. Liga
- 28 June 2020Dynamo Dresden 2–2 VfL Osnabruck2. Bundesliga
- 15 December 2019VfL Osnabruck 3–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
VfL Osnabrück carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.45 for Dynamo Dresden. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for VfL Osnabrück and 1.60 for Dynamo Dresden. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfL Osnabrück rate 0.68 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dynamo Dresden rate 0.70 and 1.57.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VfL Osnabrück a 0.6% chance of the title and Dynamo Dresden 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfL Osnabrück the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for VfL Osnabrück against 1.6 for Dynamo Dresden. VfL Osnabrück's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.57 for Dynamo Dresden.