VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfL Osnabrück 1-1 Dynamo Dresden.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% VfL Osnabrück, 24% draw, 34% Dynamo Dresden — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
VfL Osnabrück at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32J. KrumreyG
- 27R. FabinskiD
- 24J. MüllerD
- 25N. WiemannD
- 31P. KammerbauerM
- 21A. BeckM
- 15B. JacobsenM
- 26F. WagnerM
- 42J. GómezM
- 22B. RiesselmannF
- 11R. MeißnerF
- 4J. Abu HannaD
- 10I. BadjieM
- 28K. FaberD
- 18L. FlachM
- 20T. JanottaD
- 7D. KyerehM
- 8L. MünstM
- 17L. RaimundF
- 1N. SauterG
- 22L. GrillG
- 32J. SternerD
- 6N. RappD
- 42F. MullerD
- 44S. StraudiD
- 18R. WagnerM
- 21T. RaschlM
- 24P. ČovićM
- 27N. HauptmannM
- 20B. BobzienM
- 9V. VermeijF
- 1T. SchreiberG
- 19A. RossipalD
- 7K. OkpalaF
- 34T. NeiningerD
- 17A. MuhamedbegovićD
- 10J. LemmerM
- 8L. HerrmannM
- 33C. DafernerF
- 11K. InanogluF
Form going into VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden
VfL Osnabrück
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Holstein Kiel19 September 2026
- L1-3Hertha BSC13 September 2026
- W3-1Eintracht Braunschweig6 September 2026
- W1-0away to VfL Bochum28 August 2026
- L0-31. FC Magdeburg15 August 2026
Dynamo Dresden
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Hertha BSC19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Eintracht Braunschweig12 September 2026
- L1-2VfL Bochum5 September 2026
- L3-5away to 1. FC Heidenheim29 August 2026
- W1-0SV Darmstadt 9816 August 2026
What these results say
- VfL Osnabrück scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Osnabrück conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Osnabrück vs Dynamo Dresden
- 12 April 2025Dynamo Dresden 0–1 VfL Osnabrück3. Liga
- 9 November 2024VfL Osnabrück 0–3 Dynamo Dresden3. Liga
- 2 April 2023VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Dynamo Dresden3. Liga
- 9 October 2022Dynamo Dresden 3–2 VfL Osnabrück3. Liga
- 28 June 2020Dynamo Dresden 2–2 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: VfL Osnabrück and Dynamo Dresden
VfL Osnabrück
GoalsAssists
- R. Meißner41
Dynamo Dresden
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
VfL Osnabrück and Dynamo Dresden drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for VfL Osnabrück at 42% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Niklas Hauptmann 38' for Dynamo Dresden, Robin Fabinski 87' for VfL Osnabrück. On expected goals it finished 1.49–0.64.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave VfL Osnabrück a 24.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 19.5% after a win, 24.3% after a draw, 29.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 24.3%.
For Dynamo Dresden the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 27.3% going in: 22.3% after a win, 27.7% after a draw, 30.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 27.7%.
Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on VfL Osnabrück v Dynamo Dresden has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 24% / 34%: the biggest move is VfL Osnabrück's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- VfL Osnabrück win42%▲ +3
- Draw24%▼ −3
- Dynamo Dresden win34%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.