10 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Max-Morlock-Stadion, Nuremberg
Referee: Lars Erbst, Germany
Full time4 – 4

Final score: 1. FC Nürnberg 4-4 VfL Wolfsburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% 1. FC Nürnberg, 26% draw, 33% VfL Wolfsburg — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Nürnberg at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Nürnberg96%Draw4%VfL Wolfsburg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽Hauke Wahl
Mohamed Alì Zoma
20'
29'
⚽Muhammed Damarassist: Vinicius de Souza Costa
⚽Piet Scobelassist: Javier Fernández
52'
⚽Piet Scobelassist: Rayan Ghrieb
59'
62'
🔁Yannick Gerhardtout: Elvis Rexhbecaj
62'
Hauke Wahl
🔁Tim janischout: Giannis Masouras
63'
🔁Rayan Ghriebout: Rafael Lubach
63'
⚽Mohamed Alì Zomaassist: Eric Porstner
63'
75'
🔁Alexander Bernhardssonout: Alessio Besio
75'
🔁Fabian Reeseout: Kento Shiogai
76'
Mathys Angély
79'
🔁Vinicius de Souza Costaout: Maximilian Arnold
🔁Julian Justvanout: William Bøving
81'
🔁Eric Porstnerout: andrea ceresoli
81'
86'
Kento Shiogai
Alexios Kalogeropoulos
87'
87'
•Kento Shiogai
90+1'
⚽Alessio Besio
⚽Giannis Masourasassist: Adam Markhiev
90+6'
Giannis Masouras
90+6'
🔁Mohamed Alì Zomaout: Sigurd Haugen
90+7'
90+8'
⚽Alessio Besio

Match stats — 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg

54%Possession46%
21Shots22
8On target9
6Corners6
2.42xG3.73

Goals against chances

1. FC Nürnberg4 from 2.42 xGmore than the chances were worth
VfL Wolfsburg4 from 3.73 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Nürnberg 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ReichertG
  • 32T. JanischD
  • 4A. KalogeropoulosD
  • 20F. OttoD
  • 41E. PorstnerD
  • 6A. MarhievM
  • 8J. FernandezM
  • 10J. JustvanM
  • 7R. GhriebM
  • 23M. ZomaM
  • 19P. ScobelF
Substitutes
  • 11W. BøvingF
  • 14andrea ceresoliD
  • 44K. El HaijaD
  • 9S. HaugenF
  • 13Robin LisewskiG
  • 18Rafael LubachM
  • 21G. MasourasD
  • 28Can Yaha MoustfaF
  • 35M. Kornwachs BarjuanM
Coach: M. Klose
VfL Wolfsburg 4-3-3
  • 30J. ZielińskiG
  • 2K. FischerD
  • 6H. WahlD
  • 22M. AngelyD
  • 21J. MæhleD
  • 31Y. GerhardtM
  • 5Vinicius SouzaM
  • 20M. DamarM
  • 17A. BernhardssonF
  • 19R. GlatzelF
  • 11F. ReeseF
Substitutes
  • 23A. BesioF
  • 8Bence DárdaiM
  • 46Dušan PernišG
  • 12P. PervanG
  • 37E. RexhbeçajM
  • 7K. ShiogaiF
  • 25A. ZehnterD
  • 27M. ArnoldM
  • 18J. AdjeteyD
Coach: Tobias Strobl

Form going into 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg

1. FC Nürnberg

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Karlsruher SC19 September 2026
  • W2-1Hannover 9611 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Holstein Kiel5 September 2026
  • W4-1Arminia Bielefeld29 August 2026
  • W4-2away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth15 August 2026

VfL Wolfsburg

All competitions we cover

  • W5-1SV Darmstadt 9818 September 2026
  • L0-1away to FC St. Pauli12 September 2026
  • D4-4Energie Cottbus5 September 2026
  • W5-2away to Karlsruher SC29 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Hannover 9616 August 2026

What these results say

  • 1. FC Nürnberg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • 1. FC Nürnberg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 1. FC Nürnberg won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • VfL Wolfsburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • VfL Wolfsburg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21. FC Nürnberg117312613+1324
5VfL Wolfsburg115422616+1019

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg

  • 4 May 2019VfL Wolfsburg 2–0 FC NurnbergBundesliga
  • 14 December 2018FC Nurnberg 0–2 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • 19 December 2017FC Nurnberg 0–2 VfL WolfsburgDFB Pokal
  • 12 April 2014VfL Wolfsburg 4–1 FC NurnbergBundesliga
  • 23 November 2013FC Nurnberg 1–1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Nürnberg and VfL Wolfsburg

1. FC Nürnberg

GoalsAssists

  • M. Zoma70
  • P. Scobel61

VfL Wolfsburg

GoalsAssists

  • F. Reese57
  • R. Glatzel51
  • A. Bernhardsson43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

1. FC Nürnberg and VfL Wolfsburg drew 4–4. The model had leaned towards a win for 1. FC Nürnberg at 41% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Hauke Wahl 12' for VfL Wolfsburg, Muhammed Damar 29' for VfL Wolfsburg, Piet Scobel 52' for 1. FC Nürnberg, Piet Scobel 59' for 1. FC Nürnberg, Mohamed Alì Zoma 63' for 1. FC Nürnberg, Alessio Besio 90+1' for VfL Wolfsburg, Giannis Masouras 90+6' for 1. FC Nürnberg, Alessio Besio 90+8' for VfL Wolfsburg. On expected goals it finished 2.42–3.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave 1. FC Nürnberg a 24.7% chance to finish top of the regular season: 30.0% after a win, 22.2% after a draw, 18.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 22.2%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.

For VfL Wolfsburg the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 60.2% going in: 67.2% after a win, 60.2% after a draw, 55.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 60.2%.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on 1. FC Nürnberg v VfL Wolfsburg has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 26% / 33%: the biggest move is 1. FC Nürnberg's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. 1. FC Nürnberg win41%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. VfL Wolfsburg win33%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.