1. FC Nürnberg
vs
VfL Wolfsburg
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: 1. FC Nürnberg 2–1 VfL Wolfsburg
The model makes it 39% 1. FC Nürnberg, 28% draw, 33% VfL Wolfsburg — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.63, VfL Wolfsburg 1.37.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Nürnberg at 39% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Nürnberg
- W1-0away to Karlsruher SC19 September 2026
- W2-1Hannover 9611 September 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel5 September 2026
- W4-1Arminia Bielefeld29 August 2026
- W4-2away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth15 August 2026
VfL Wolfsburg
- W5-1SV Darmstadt 9818 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC St. Pauli12 September 2026
- D4-4Energie Cottbus5 September 2026
- W5-2away to Karlsruher SC29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hannover 9616 August 2026
What these results say
- 1. FC Nürnberg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg won 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 16 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg
- 4 May 2019VfL Wolfsburg 2–0 FC NurnbergBundesliga
- 14 December 2018FC Nurnberg 0–2 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 19 December 2017FC Nurnberg 0–2 VfL WolfsburgDFB Pokal
- 12 April 2014VfL Wolfsburg 4–1 FC NurnbergBundesliga
- 23 November 2013FC Nurnberg 1–1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 31 March 2013VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 FC NurnbergBundesliga
Leading scorers: 1. FC Nürnberg and VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Nürnberg
- M. Zoma6 goals
- J. Justvan3 goals1 assists
- P. Scobel3 goals1 assists
VfL Wolfsburg
- R. Glatzel4 goals1 assists
- F. Reese3 goals4 assists
- A. Bernhardsson3 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Nürnberg carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.68 for VfL Wolfsburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.37 for VfL Wolfsburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Nürnberg rate 0.83 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfL Wolfsburg rate 0.81 and 1.14.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 12% chance of the title and VfL Wolfsburg 1.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Nürnberg the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.37 for VfL Wolfsburg. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.14 for VfL Wolfsburg.