12 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha Pro League prediction & result

Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Riyadh
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Al Shabab 0-0 Al-Fayha.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Al Shabab, 28% draw, 28% Al-Fayha — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Al Shabab at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al Shabab5%Draw92%Al-Fayha3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
🔁Alfa Semedoout: R. Enad
🔁A. Al Oboudout: H. Al Hammami
61'
63'
🔁Lazaroout: Yago Souza
73'
Yago Souza
84'
🔁Jason Remeseiroout: A. Al Baraa
84'
🔁M. Al Besheout: M. Al Abdulmanam
89'
Rayan Enad
Dhari Al-Enezi
90+1'

Match stats — Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha

52%Possession48%
14Shots5
3On target3
8Corners1
1.09xG0.54

Goals against chances

Al Shabab0 from 1.09 xGless than the chances were worth
Al-Fayha0 from 0.54 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al Shabab 4-4-2
  • 1M. DiawG
  • 17M. Al ThaniD
  • 3M. T. BarryD
  • 4T. JedvajD
  • 21D. Al AnaziD
  • 24A. Al OboudM
  • 8J. BrownhillM
  • 29Y. AdliM
  • 10Y. CarrascoM
  • 9R. B. Martinez TobinsonF
  • 49Ricardo MathiasF
Substitutes
  • 23A. Al AwardiG
  • 27A. Al Hawsawi
  • 2M. Al ShwirekhD
  • 12S. Al Anzi
  • 40A. Al AsmariM
  • 6A. Al NashriM
  • 22H. Al HammamiF
  • 97M. KhadhariF
  • 37A. Matuq
Coach: Thomas Letsch
Al-Fayha 4-1-4-1
  • 52O. MosqueraG
  • 22M. Al BaqawiD
  • 2M. Al RashidiD
  • 25O. ColleyD
  • 24A. BamsaudD
  • 5Hugo MouraM
  • 23Jason RemeseiroM
  • 30Alfa SemedoM
  • 14M. Al BesheM
  • 10F. SakalaM
  • 17LazaroF
Substitutes
  • 1A. Al DuqaylG
  • 12T. Al JaadiD
  • 21Z. Al SahafiD
  • 29A. Al Baraa
  • 40Yago SouzaM
  • 43F. AlhubayshiM
  • 27S. Al JarbiF
  • 9M. Al AbdulmanamF
  • 77R. Enad
Coach: Carille Fabio

Form going into Al Shabab vs Al-Fayha

Al Shabab

Pro League

  • L1-2away to Al Kholood9 September 2026

Al-Fayha

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Al-Ittihad8 September 2026
  • D2-2Al Kholood3 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Al Shabab102531414011
15Al-Fayha111551219-78

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Al Shabab and Al-Fayha drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Al Shabab at 44% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.09–0.54.

How the call on Al Shabab v Al-Fayha has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Al Shabab's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Al Shabab win44%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Al-Fayha win28%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.