5 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Sudtirol vs Catanzaro Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Marco Druso, Bolzano
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Sudtirol 2-0 Catanzaro.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Sudtirol, 29% draw, 30% Catanzaro — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sudtirol at 41% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sudtirol99%Draw1%Catanzaro0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

54'
Jacopo Petriccione
58'
🔁Matias Antoniniout: A. Candela
🔁A. Vasicout: K. Zeroli
59'
🔁V. Lopesout: R. Burnete
60'
71'
🔁M. Dorvalout: E. Pecorino
72'
🔁B. Verrengiaout: M. Imperiale
🔁B. Bjarkasonout: S. Davi
77'
🔁A. Okoroout: K. Mixtur
77'
82'
🔁J. Petriccioneout: F. Tchaouna
83'
🔁S. Giovaneout: A. Garnica
⚽R. Burneteassist: F. Rispoli
86'
🔁D. Veroliout: F. Davi
87'
Kenny Mixtur
89'
⚽K. Mixturassist: K. Zeroli
89'

Match stats — Sudtirol vs Catanzaro

44%Possession56%
9Shots12
4On target2
3Corners5
0.41xG0.61

Goals against chances

Sudtirol2 from 0.41 xGmore than the chances were worth
Catanzaro0 from 0.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sudtirol 5-4-1
  • 22A. PlizzariG
  • 79S. MolinaD
  • 4R. StivanelloD
  • 55A. GiorginiD
  • 3D. VeroliD
  • 20B. BjarkasonD
  • 11V. LopesM
  • 10F. RispoliM
  • 5S. TronchinM
  • 14A. VasicM
  • 90A. OkoroF
Substitutes
  • 12R. VadjunecG
  • 23F. DaviD
  • 19M. PelliniD
  • 24S. DaviD
  • 39M. IulianoD
  • 21F. TaitM
  • 18K. ZeroliM
  • 46D. BrikM
  • 25K. MixturF
Coach: Fabrizio Castori
Catanzaro 3-4-2-1
  • 22M. PigliacelliG
  • 24M. RuggeroD
  • 4Matias AntoniniD
  • 26B. VerrengiaD
  • 93M. DorvalM
  • 98N. MostiM
  • 10J. PetriccioneM
  • 30G. AlesiM
  • 14S. GiovaneF
  • 9P. IemmelloF
  • 19N. KoffiF
Substitutes
  • 1C. MariettaG
  • 3M. ImperialeD
  • 6N. Postiglione
  • 27A. CandelaD
  • 21F. CassaM
  • 80F. ReitaM
  • 18A. GarnicaF
  • 28F. Tchaouna
  • 29F. Di FrancescoF
Coach: Giorgio Gorgone

Form going into Sudtirol vs Catanzaro

Sudtirol

  • D1-1away to Benevento30 August 2026
  • W1-0Virtus Entella22 August 2026

Catanzaro

  • L1-2away to Pisa30 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Vicenza Virtus21 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Sudtirol532093+611
18Catanzaro510459-43

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sudtirol vs Catanzaro

  • 15 August 2026Catanzaro 2–2 SudtirolCoppa Italia
  • 31 January 2026Sudtirol 2–1 CatanzaroSerie B
  • 24 August 2025Catanzaro 1–1 SudtirolSerie B
  • 12 January 2025Sudtirol 1–1 CatanzaroSerie B
  • 27 October 2024Catanzaro 3–0 SudtirolSerie B
  • 17 February 2024Catanzaro 2–2 SudtirolSerie B

Leading scorers: Sudtirol and Catanzaro

Sudtirol

  • K. Mixtur2 goals

Catanzaro

  • P. Iemmello2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.