6 September 2026, 17:30 UTC

Cremonese vs Padova Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Cremonese 3-1 Padova.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Cremonese, 27% draw, 21% Padova — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cremonese at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cremonese99%Draw1%Padova0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽F. Bonazzoliassist: A. Licina
1'
⚽A. Licinaassist: T. Berti
5'
45'
⚽M. Pompettiassist: L. Carissoni
⚽F. Bonazzoliassist: J. Vandeputte
56'
57'
🔁P. Fusiout: K. Varas
57'
🔁G. Caprariout: K. Lasagna
🔁F. Bonazzoliout: M. Nasti
65'
🔁A. Vogliaccoout: S. Elia
70'
🔁Y. Rocchettiout: Fellipe Jack
71'
🔁A. Licinaout: M. Thorsby
71'
72'
🔁M. Cocchiout: F. Di Mariano
72'
🔁C. Pastinaout: A. Capelli
🔁J. Vandeputteout: M. Collocolo
77'
82'
🔁L. Moroout: A. Seghetti

Match stats — Cremonese vs Padova

54%Possession46%
10Shots12
6On target7
3Corners5
2.46xG1.3

Goals against chances

Cremonese3 from 2.46 xGmore than the chances were worth
Padova1 from 1.30 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cremonese 4-2-3-1
  • 22F. Agazzi
  • 38A. VogliaccoD
  • 15M. BianchettiD
  • 5S. LupertoD
  • 21Y. RocchettiD
  • 16F. GerliM
  • 20S. PontissoM
  • 10A. LicinaM
  • 14T. BertiM
  • 27J. VandeputteM
  • 90F. BonazzoliF
Substitutes
  • 12M. FestaG
  • 59R. LiberaliG
  • 13Fellipe JackD
  • 6F. BaschirottoD
  • 2M. ThorsbyM
  • 18M. CollocoloM
  • 8S. Lottici TessadriM
  • 11M. DjuricF
  • 71S. EliaM
Coach: Fabio Pecchia
Padova 3-5-2
  • 22A. SorrentinoG
  • 27A. DellavalleD
  • 5M. LovatoD
  • 58C. PastinaD
  • 24L. CarissoniM
  • 14M. PompettiM
  • 21E. ZuelliM
  • 8P. FusiM
  • 34M. CocchiM
  • 9L. MoroF
  • 10G. CaprariF
Substitutes
  • 1L. MouquetG
  • 32F. SgarbiD
  • 18E. SillettiD
  • 72C. FaedoD
  • 6G. GiuntiM
  • 7K. VarasM
  • 25N. GalazziM
  • 74D. MarcoliniM
  • 23F. Di MarianoM
Coach: Roberto Breda

Form going into Cremonese vs Padova

Cremonese

  • L0-3Modena28 August 2026

Padova

  • D1-1Hellas Verona29 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Cremonese613257-26
10Padova621358-37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cremonese vs Padova

  • 9 February 2019Cremonese 0–0 PadovaSerie B
  • 23 September 2018Padova 1–1 CremoneseSerie B

Leading scorers: Cremonese and Padova

Cremonese

GoalsAssists

  • F. Bonazzoli31

Padova

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.