5 September 2026, 17:30 UTC

Carrarese vs Empoli Serie B prediction & result

Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Carrarese 0-1 Empoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Carrarese, 29% draw, 31% Empoli — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Carrarese at 40% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Carrarese0%Draw5%Empoli95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45'
🔁Joseph Ceesayout: Filippo Di Stefano
51'
Luca Magnino
🔁Luka Topalovicout: Jacopo Martini
60'
61'
🔁Steven Shpendiout: Bogdan Popov
61'
🔁Edoardo Biondiniout: Filippo Bandinelli
🔁Gabriele parlantiout: Niccolò Belloni
71'
🔁Moustapha Cisseout: Mattia Finotto
71'
🔁Nicolas Schiaviout: Matthias Braunöder
72'
74'
⚽Bogdan Popovassist: Luca Magnino
78'
🔁Matteo Eganout: Karim Zedadka
🔁Fabio Andreaout: Nicolo Cudrig
78'
82'
🔁Edoardo Saporitiout: Duccio Degli Innocenti
87'
Filippo Di Stefano

Match stats — Carrarese vs Empoli

41%Possession59%
9Shots16
5On target2
1Corners7
0.77xG0.7

Goals against chances

Carrarese0 from 0.77 xGless than the chances were worth
Empoli1 from 0.70 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Carrarese 3-5-2
  • 1S. PizzignaccoG
  • 13F. RuggeriD
  • 6F. OlianaD
  • 41L. RomaniD
  • 33F. RealeM
  • 77G. ParlantiM
  • 18N. SchiaviM
  • 17L. TopalovicM
  • 73J. RouhiM
  • 11M. CisseF
  • 9F. AbiusoF
Substitutes
  • 30N. RavagliaG
  • 12G. GarofaniG
  • 20G. EstevesD
  • 5T. MacchioniD
  • 28J. MartiniM
  • 8Y. KhafiM
  • 66P. PinelliM
  • 23M. BraunoderM
  • 7N. BelloniM
Coach: Gabriele Cioffi
Empoli 3-1-4-2
  • 12J. SeghettiG
  • 25M. CurtoD
  • 33C. CauzD
  • 8L. MagninoD
  • 21G. YepesM
  • 35M. EganM
  • 39E. BiondiniM
  • 10E. SaporitiM
  • 91N. CorradoM
  • 11S. ShpendiF
  • 15J. CeesayF
Substitutes
  • 1S. PerisanG
  • 28G. IndragoliD
  • 36D. BembnistaD
  • 40R. BerizziD
  • 6S. RomagnoliD
  • 23F. BandinelliM
  • 57L. BelardinelliM
  • 98K. ZedadkaM
  • 5D. Degli InnocentiM
Coach: Guido Pagliuca

Form going into Carrarese vs Empoli

Carrarese

  • D1-1away to Ascoli29 August 2026
  • L1-2Mantova22 August 2026

Empoli

  • L1-3away to Mantova30 August 2026
  • W1-0Cremonese22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Carrarese501426-41
13Empoli520346-26

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Carrarese vs Empoli

  • 23 January 2026Carrarese 3–0 EmpoliSerie B
  • 28 September 2025Empoli 2–2 CarrareseSerie B
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.