5 September 2026, 15:15 UTC

Ascoli vs Benevento Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Ascoli 1-0 Benevento.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Ascoli, 28% draw, 34% Benevento — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ascoli at 38% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ascoli97%Draw3%Benevento0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Antonio Prisco
Nicholas Rizzo
42'
42'
Antonio Prisco
42'
Antonio Prisco
Marcos Curado
45'
46'
🔁M. Tumminelloout: C. Dalle Mura
46'
🔁L. Cherubiniout: C. Kouan
🔁S. Perciunout: M. Brunori
53'
🔁A. Silipoout: G. De Pieri
54'
🔁G. Goriout: M. A. Chakir
54'
•Marcos Curado
58'
64'
🔁D. Lamestaout: A. Siatounis
66'
Pietro Beruatto
68'
Mattia Maita
69'
🔁P. Beruattoout: E. Pierozzi
🔁S. Damianiout: G. Acampora
73'
⚽M. Brunori (pen)
84'
85'
🔁P. Saioout: D. Okereke
86'
Christian Kouan
🔁T. Milaneseout: F. Gattoni
88'

Match stats — Ascoli vs Benevento

57%Possession43%
12Shots4
4On target0
7Corners5
2.37xG0.07

Goals against chances

Ascoli1 from 2.37 xGless than the chances were worth
Benevento0 from 0.07 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ascoli 3-5-2
  • 1S. VitaleG
  • 62T. MilaneseD
  • 30M. CuradoF
  • 33N. RizzoD
  • 7A. SilipoM
  • 8G. CorradiniM
  • 4S. DamianiM
  • 11S. PerciunM
  • 19A. GuiebreM
  • 35G. GoriF
  • 15S. D'UffiziF
Substitutes
  • 45G. M. CrespiG
  • 3M. NicolettiD
  • 32F. GattoniD
  • 21G. De PieriM
  • 18L. Lo ScalzoM
  • 16A. RussoM
  • 27M. RicciM
  • 13G. AcamporaM
  • 14A. OliveriM
Coach: Francesco Tomei
Benevento 4-1-3-2
  • 26G. VannucchiG
  • 17L. SernicolaD
  • 14S. ScognamilloD
  • 23P. SaioD
  • 20P. BeruattoD
  • 4A. PriscoM
  • 11D. LamestaM
  • 8M. MaitaM
  • 10L. CherubiniM
  • 9F. SalveminiF
  • 93M. TumminelloF
Substitutes
  • 96A. SyllaG
  • 22M. EspositoG
  • 5L. CaldirolaD
  • 77E. PierozziD
  • 15C. Dalle MuraD
  • 6A. SiatounisM
  • 38A. TaliaM
  • 28C. KouanM
  • 16M. ManniniD
Coach: Antonio Floro Flores

Form going into Ascoli vs Benevento

Ascoli

  • D1-1Carrarese29 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Hellas Verona23 August 2026

Benevento

  • D1-1Sudtirol30 August 2026
  • L1-2Modena22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Ascoli531174+310
7Benevento521265+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ascoli vs Benevento

  • 26 February 2023Ascoli 0–0 BeneventoSerie B
  • 2 October 2022Benevento 1–1 AscoliSerie B
  • 13 May 2022Ascoli 0–1 BeneventoSerie B
  • 16 February 2022Benevento 0–2 AscoliSerie B
  • 18 September 2021Ascoli 0–2 BeneventoSerie B
  • 31 July 2020Ascoli 2–4 BeneventoSerie B

Leading scorers: Ascoli and Benevento

Ascoli

  • A. Silipo3 goals

Benevento

No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.