6 September 2026, 13:00 UTC

Cesena vs Mantova Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Cesena 1-1 Mantova.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Cesena, 29% draw, 31% Mantova — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cesena at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cesena4%Draw92%Mantova4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
Rachid Kouda
31'
⚽F. Ruocco
🔁A. Davidout: G. Frabotta
46'
46'
🔁V. Vlahovicout: E. Gliozzi
🔁X. Druiventakout: L. D'Andrea
55'
58'
🔁L. Ignacchitiout: D. Wieser
58'
🔁R. Ilieout: D. Bragantini
🔁M. Dalla Vecchiaout: A. Debenedetti
68'
76'
🔁A. Castelliniout: T. Del Lungo
76'
🔁R. Koudaout: F. Paoletti
⚽C. Shpendiassist: L. D'Andrea
77'
🔁M. Ilicout: M. Mangraviti
80'
🔁A. Fioriout: M. Guidi
80'

Match stats — Cesena vs Mantova

67%Possession33%
20Shots8
6On target4
10Corners4
1.68xG0.69

Goals against chances

Cesena1 from 1.68 xGless than the chances were worth
Mantova1 from 0.69 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cesena 4-3-3
  • 1A. SianoG
  • 15A. CiofiD
  • 6M. IlicD
  • 4J. GelliD
  • 3A. DavidD
  • 25D. BisoliM
  • 10R. PaganoM
  • 27M. Dalla VecchiaM
  • 14X. DruiventakF
  • 9C. ShpendiF
  • 80A. FioriF
Substitutes
  • 13L. FerrettiG
  • 90T. MazziG
  • 24M. MangravitiD
  • 7G. FrabottaD
  • 2M. NattaD
  • 23V. MagniD
  • 32E. BohinenM
  • 5L. SchironeM
  • 18M. GuidiM
Coach: Alessandro Diamanti
Mantova 3-4-2-1
  • 22F. BardiG
  • 5B. TomasevicD
  • 29S. CellaD
  • 27A. CastelliniD
  • 41J. SilvaM
  • 25L. IgnacchitiM
  • 80R. KoudaM
  • 50F. Benaissa-YahiaM
  • 8R. IlieF
  • 19F. RuoccoF
  • 99V. VlahovicF
Substitutes
  • 1L. GemelloG
  • 75E. KospoD
  • 58T. Del LungoD
  • 6J. LongondaM
  • 10D. WieserM
  • 20F. PaolettiM
  • 18S. KeitaM
  • 71F. ChinettiF
  • 11I. CajazzoM
Coach: Francesco Modesto

Form going into Cesena vs Mantova

Cesena

  • W2-1away to Virtus Entella29 August 2026

Mantova

  • W3-1Empoli30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Cesena614178-17
2Mantova6420136+714

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cesena vs Mantova

  • 17 March 2026Mantova 3–0 CesenaSerie B
  • 13 December 2025Cesena 3–2 MantovaSerie B
  • 2 August 2025Mantova 1–2 CesenaFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 May 2025Mantova 3–0 CesenaSerie B
  • 29 September 2024Cesena 4–2 MantovaSerie B
  • 5 May 2024Mantova 1–2 CesenaSerie C - Supercoppa Lega Finals

Leading scorers: Cesena and Mantova

Cesena

GoalsAssists

  • C. Shpendi60

Mantova

GoalsAssists

  • F. Ruocco50
  • V. Vlahović21

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.