Regular Season - 11 · 29 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg Bundesliga prediction

SNP Arena, Sinsheim

Our model says: 1899 Hoffenheim 2–1 FC Augsburg

The model makes it 45% 1899 Hoffenheim, 23% draw, 32% FC Augsburg — fair odds of 2.22, 4.35 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).

Expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.27, FC Augsburg 1.85.

Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. 1899 Hoffenheim's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and FC Augsburg's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.

Key facts

1899 Hoffenheim are 9th on 12 points from 9 games; FC Augsburg are 14th on 9 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
1899 Hoffenheim have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Schalke 04.
FC Augsburg have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat away to RB Leipzig.
Last 6 meetings: 1899 Hoffenheim 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 April 2026, ended FC Augsburg 2–2 1899 Hoffenheim.

More Bundesliga predictions

All Bundesliga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg

76%

Both teams to score

78%

Over 2.5 goals

22%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

1899 Hoffenheim win Draw FC Augsburg win

2–18%
1–17%
2–27%
1–26%
3–16%
3–25%
2–34%

Scores read 1899 Hoffenheim first; the other scorelines share the remaining 56%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

1899 Hoffenheim at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg

1899 Hoffenheim

Bundesliga

W2-1FC Schalke 048 November 2026
L0-2away to Werder Bremen31 October 2026
W3-0Bayer Leverkusen25 October 2026
W2-1away to Borussia Mönchengladbach18 October 2026
L2-3Hamburger SV10 October 2026

FC Augsburg

Bundesliga

L2-5away to RB Leipzig7 November 2026
L1-2SC Freiburg31 October 2026
D1-1Union Berlin24 October 2026
L3-4away to SV Elversberg17 October 2026
D2-2Bayern München10 October 2026

What these results say

1899 Hoffenheim scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
1899 Hoffenheim conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for 1899 Hoffenheim had three goals or more.
FC Augsburg did not win any of these 5 matches.
FC Augsburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
FC Augsburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
9	1899 Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	16	17	-1	12
14	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	20	20	0	9

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg

10 April 2026FC Augsburg 2–2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
29 November 20251899 Hoffenheim 3–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
29 March 20251899 Hoffenheim 1–1 FC AugsburgBundesliga
6 January 20251899 Hoffenheim 3–1 FC AugsburgFriendlies Clubs
10 November 2024FC Augsburg 0–0 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
7 April 20241899 Hoffenheim 3–1 FC AugsburgBundesliga

The full 1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Augsburg record →

Leading scorers: 1899 Hoffenheim and FC Augsburg

1899 Hoffenheim

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

FC Augsburg

GoalsAssists

M. Gregoritsch50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

1899 Hoffenheim FC Augsburg

1.07 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.07

1.12 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.15

2.27 Model expected goals (this match) 1.85

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives 1899 Hoffenheim the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim against 1.85 for FC Augsburg. 1899 Hoffenheim's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.07/1.15 for FC Augsburg.

How the model reaches 45% for 1899 Hoffenheim to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for 1899 Hoffenheim to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, 1899 Hoffenheim's ratings add 1 point and FC Augsburg's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 45%.

Two average sides, neutral ground38%
Home advantage43%+5
Both sides at this match's level44%+1
1899 Hoffenheim's ratings45%+1
FC Augsburg's ratings45%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

1899 HoffenheimModelFC Augsburg

Over 1.5 goals

100%

9 of 9 games

92%

model, this match

100%

9 of 9 games

Over 2.5 goals

89%

8 of 9 games

78%

model, this match

89%

8 of 9 games

Over 3.5 goals

44%

4 of 9 games

59%

model, this match

67%

6 of 9 games

Both teams score

78%

7 of 9 games

76%

model, this match

89%

8 of 9 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

1899 HoffenheimFC Augsburg

9Matches9

4W 0D 5LRecord2W 3D 4L

16 1.8 per gameGoals scored20 2.2 per game

17 1.9 per gameGoals conceded20 2.2 per game

1 of 9Clean sheets1 of 9

1 of 9Failed to score0 of 9

1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2

17 1.9 per gameYellow cards13 1.4 per game

2Red cards1

4-4-2 4×Usual shape3-4-2-1 8×

1899 Hoffenheim at home · FC Augsburg away

5Played4

3W 0D 2LRecord1W 0D 3L

11–8Goals for – against11–13

1 of 5Clean sheets0 of 4

League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

1899 HoffenheimFC Augsburg

1899 Hoffenheim are 9th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 9th and 16th so far); FC Augsburg are 14th after 9 (between 1st and 11th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Bundesliga matches this season: 1899 Hoffenheim 9, FC Augsburg 9.

1899 Hoffenheim scored 321423

FC Augsburg conceded 322446

1899 Hoffenheim score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); FC Augsburg have let in 4 there.

FC Augsburg scored 231436

1899 Hoffenheim conceded 112445

FC Augsburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); 1899 Hoffenheim have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

1899 Hoffenheim

at SC Freiburg5 Dec · Bundesligawin 22%
at Anderlecht10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 30%
vs Bayern München13 Dec · Bundesligawin 17%

FC Augsburg

vs 1. FC Köln5 Dec · Bundesligawin 51%
at Borussia Dortmund12 Dec · Bundesligawin 14%
vs SC Paderborn 0719 Dec · Bundesligawin 47%
at VfB Stuttgart9 Jan · Bundesligawin 25%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.