Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Austria Lustenau 2-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Before kick-off the model made it 21% Austria Lustenau, 23% draw, 56% Wolfsberger AC — fair odds of 4.76, 4.35 and 1.79.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Wolfsberger AC at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 27Domenik SchierlG
- 7Fabian GmeinerD
- 15Chukwu EmmanuelD
- 29Niklas PertlwieserD
- 3Danilo SoaresD
- 8Dion KacuriM
- 11Dominik WeixelbraunM
- 20Lord AfrifaM
- 24Seydou DiarraM
- 17Albin GashiM
- 39Antonio VerinacF
- 26Lukas IbertsbergerD
- 19Sacha DelayeM
- 30Phillip BohmG
- 31Matthias MaakD
- 18Robin VoisineD
- 23Pius GrabherM
- 61Haris IsmailcebiogluM
- 9Lenn JastremskiF
- 14Precious BenjaminF
- 1Lukas GütlbauerG
- 6Raffael BehounekD
- 15Cheick Mamadou DiabateD
- 37Nicolas WimmerD
- 31Fabian WohlmuthM
- 30Marco SulznerM
- 19Otar MamageishviliM
- 11Aaron Sky SchwarzM
- 17Marco SchabauerF
- 10Donis AvdijajF
- 9Giacomo VrioniF
- 35Matteo KitzD
- 77René RennerD
- 23Phillip VerhounigF
- 49Sankara KaramokoF
- 21David SkublG
- 20Thorsten SchrieblM
- 8Simon PiesingerM
- 34Emmanuel AgyemangM
- 32Markus PinkF
Form going into Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Grazer AK8 August 2026
- D1-1Ried2 August 2026
Wolfsberger AC
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Red Bull Salzburg9 August 2026
- W3-0Austria Vienna2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 11 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC
- 23 April 2024Austria Lustenau 1–2 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 20 April 2024Wolfsberger AC 1–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 11 November 2023Austria Lustenau 2–3 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 12 August 2023Wolfsberger AC 1–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 5 June 2023Wolfsberger AC 1–2 Austria LustenauBundesliga
Leading scorers: Austria Lustenau and Wolfsberger AC
Austria Lustenau
GoalsAssists
- D. Weixelbraun61
Wolfsberger AC
GoalsAssists
- G. Vrioni40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Austria Lustenau beat Wolfsberger AC 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Wolfsberger AC at 56% and given a win for Austria Lustenau 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: A. Verinac 23' for Austria Lustenau, A. Verinac 32' for Austria Lustenau, G. Vrioni 45+4' for Wolfsberger AC. On expected goals it finished 2.27–1.30.