Austria Lustenau
vs
Wolfsberger AC
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 19% Austria Lustenau, 23% draw, 58% Wolfsberger AC — fair odds of 5.26, 4.35 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Austria Lustenau 1.04, Wolfsberger AC 1.92.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Austria Lustenau
- L1-2away to Grazer AK8 August 2026
- D1-1Ried2 August 2026
Wolfsberger AC
- D1-1Red Bull Salzburg9 August 2026
- W3-0Austria Vienna2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Austria Lustenau | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 2 | Wolfsberger AC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Austria Lustenau
- D. Weixelbraun1 goals
Wolfsberger AC
- G. Vrioni2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Austria Lustenau carry a model rating of 5.99 against 6.45 for Wolfsberger AC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Austria Lustenau D-L; Wolfsberger AC W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.04 goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.92 for Wolfsberger AC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austria Lustenau rate 0.40 in attack and 2.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wolfsberger AC rate 0.61 and 1.37.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wolfsberger AC the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Austria Lustenau against 1.92 for Wolfsberger AC. Austria Lustenau's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.37 for Wolfsberger AC.