TSV Hartberg
vs
Austria Vienna
Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 41% TSV Hartberg, 29% draw, 30% Austria Vienna — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: TSV Hartberg 1.31, Austria Vienna 1.08.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
TSV Hartberg
- L0-2Sturm Graz8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Red Bull Salzburg1 August 2026
Austria Vienna
- L0-3away to Wolfsberger AC2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | TSV Hartberg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 12 | Austria Vienna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
TSV Hartberg carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.27 for Austria Vienna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): TSV Hartberg L-L; Austria Vienna L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.08 for Austria Vienna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
TSV Hartberg rate 0.45 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Austria Vienna rate 0.47 and 1.54.
That points to 43% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives TSV Hartberg the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for TSV Hartberg against 1.08 for Austria Vienna. TSV Hartberg's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.54 for Austria Vienna.