Regular Season - 3 · 16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg Bundesliga prediction

Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Innsbruck

The model makes it 19% WSG Wattens, 21% draw, 60% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 5.26, 4.76 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).

Expected goals: WSG Wattens 1.22, Red Bull Salzburg 2.22.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

63%
Both teams to score
67%
Over 2.5 goals
33%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-2 10%1-1 9%0-2 8%

Form going into this match

WSG Wattens

  • L1-3away to SCR Altach7 August 2026
  • D1-1Sturm Graz1 August 2026

Red Bull Salzburg

  • D1-1away to Wolfsberger AC9 August 2026
  • W1-0TSV Hartberg1 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10WSG Wattens201124-21
6Red Bull Salzburg110010+13

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Leading scorers

WSG Wattens

  • H. Balić1 goals
  • M. Olakigbe1 goals

Red Bull Salzburg

No league goals recorded yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

WSG Wattens carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.68 for Red Bull Salzburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): WSG Wattens D-L; Red Bull Salzburg W-D.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for WSG Wattens and 2.22 for Red Bull Salzburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

WSG Wattens rate 0.41 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Red Bull Salzburg rate 1.05 and 1.57.

That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (8%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Red Bull Salzburg the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for WSG Wattens against 2.22 for Red Bull Salzburg. WSG Wattens's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.57 for Red Bull Salzburg.